JAMA Netw Open: Estimated time and intensity of the re-emergence of respiratory syncytial virus after the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the main cause of acute respiratory hospitalization in infants, young children, and the elderly

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the main cause of acute respiratory hospitalization in infants, young children and the elderly

Design, setup, and participants: This simulation modeling study uses mathematical models to reproduce the annual RSV prevalence in New York and California before the COVID-19 pandemic

Main results and indicators: The main clinical result is the estimated number of RSV hospitalizations per month

Results: In a simulated population of 19.

Figure 1 The New York External Infection Import and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Hospitalization Association from 2019 to 2025; the dotted blue line corresponds to the counterfactual scenario where the seasonal RSV epidemic is not interrupted

Figure 1 The New York External Infection Import and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Hospitalization Association from 2019 to 2025; the dotted blue line corresponds to the counterfactual scenario where the seasonal RSV epidemic is not interrupted

Figure 2 The average age of hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 5 years of age; the background color represents the monthly RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 people in each age group

Figure 2 The average age of hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 5 years of age; the background color represents the monthly RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 people in each age group

Figure 3 Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, lower respiratory tract infection (LRIS) and age distribution of hospitalization from 2021-2022; these figures show the typical season (if there is no new coronary pneumonia pandemic and no mitigation measures, respiratory tract from 2021-2022 The counterfactual incidence of RSV cases during the syncytial virus season) and the expected season (assuming that a large number of RSV imports from April 2020 to February 2021 are interfered by mitigation measures, and respiratory syncytial virus in 2021-2022 The estimated incidence of respiratory syncytial virus cases) during the period of respiratory syncytial virus infection (A), respiratory syncytial virus LRIS (B) and respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization (C)

Figure 3 Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, lower respiratory tract infection (LRIS) and age distribution of hospitalization from 2021-2022; these figures show the typical season (if there is no new coronary pneumonia pandemic and no mitigation measures, respiratory tract from 2021-2022 The counterfactual incidence of RSV cases during the syncytial virus season) and the expected season (assuming that a large number of RSV imports from April 2020 to February 2021 are interfered by mitigation measures, and respiratory syncytial virus in 2021-2022 The estimated incidence of respiratory syncytial virus cases) during the period of respiratory syncytial virus infection (A), respiratory syncytial virus LRIS (B) and respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization (C)

Figure 4 Association for Mitigation Measures and RSV Hospitalization without External Infection, New York, 2019-2025; all scenarios in this figure assume that the virus spreads locally without the import of foreign viruses, whether it is before the pandemic or during the pandemic This is true during the epidemic

Figure 4 Association for Mitigation Measures and RSV Hospitalization without External Infection, New York, 2019-2025; all scenarios in this figure assume that the virus spreads locally without the import of foreign viruses, whether it is before the pandemic or during the pandemic This is true during the epidemic

This simulation modeling study found that the introduction of viruses from external sources is related to the spring and summer epidemics of 2021

Zheng Z, Pitzer VE, Shapiro ED,et al.

At The Intensity of the Timing and Estimation of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Following Reemergence of-19 at The COVID at The US Pandemic in JAMA

in this message