January 15 aluminum market brief comment

On the macro level, the news of aluminum plant shutdown caused by the sharp rise in European electricity prices during the week gradually decreased, the supply interference factors subsided, and the momentum of aluminum price rise was insufficient; In addition, according to research reports from Goldman Sachs and other institutions, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least four times in 2022, which is more
than the three widely believed by the market since the end of December last year.

From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, although the social treasury continued to decline during the week, the actual consumption of the market has declined, and the reason for destocking is more due to the lack of actual arrivals in various places due to disruptions such as the epidemic
.
The resumption of production of domestic smelters is less than expected, the escalation of the epidemic has affected logistics and transportation, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to be destocked, but consumption in the off-season at the end of the year weakened, and downstream enterprises gradually reduced holiday orders, resulting in weaker aluminum price
shocks.

On the whole, short-term aluminum prices continue to explore the space remain, but may have been limited, the tight domestic supply and demand situation still continues to support aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum main force below the support level can pay attention to 20500, the operation is recommended downstream on demand a small amount of replenishment or wait and see, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum decline will slow down, the overall will continue to fluctuate operation
.