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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
The output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in December was 3.
05 million tons
Data show that the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in December was 3.
05 million tons, up 11.
3% year-on-year; Total output in 2018 was 35.
8 million mt, up 7.
4% year-on-year; The reduction plan for electrolytic aluminum production was lost, and new production capacity was released one after another, resulting in a significant increase
in electrolytic aluminum production in December compared with November.
2.
China's alumina production in December increased by 19.
6% year-on-year
Due to the end of the overhaul of the roasting furnace of the alumina plant in southwest China and the release of production capacity after the completion of environmental protection transformation of the alumina plant in Shanxi, the output of alumina in December remained at a high level above 6 million tons, and data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the output of alumina in December 2018 was 6.
2092 million tons, an increase of 19.
6%
year-on-year.
3.
In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 527,000 tons
According to the latest released data, the current export momentum of domestic manufacturers is still strong, and China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports in December 2018 were 527,000 tons, which is still at a high level
during the year.
In 2018, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 5.
803 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.
1%.
4.
The export volume of alumina in December was about 177,400 tons
Due to the resumption of production of Hydro alumina plant, the international supply of alumina tension has been alleviated, to a certain extent inhibited China's alumina exports, according to customs data, in December China's alumina exports of 177,400 tons, down 37.
9% month-on-month, up 36.
7 times year-on-year, imports of 50,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons, December net exports of 127,400 tons
.
From January to December 2018, the cumulative export was 1.
4622 million tons, the import was 544,800 tons, and the net export for the whole year was 917,400 tons
.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
This month's Shanghai aluminum performance is weak, external strength and internal weak pattern appeared, this month Shanghai aluminum main force 1903 contract first fell and then fluctuated slightly, the overall fluctuation range 13200-13650, the year is coming, the market is mostly holiday shutdown, demand is weak, and alumina prices continue to decline, aluminum price shock pattern unchanged, Shanghai aluminum 13500 mark pressure remains, medium and long-term weak trend unchanged, February due to the Spring Festival holiday, February 2-February 10 domestic closed, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum after the holiday will continue the shock trend, Fluctuation range 13300-13600
.
Operationally, it still maintains a high sell-off
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum volatility picked up this month, due to the slowdown in China's economic data at the beginning of the month, and the market paid attention to the latest progress of the Sino-US trade war, trading cautious, Lun aluminum fell below the 1800 important mark support during the session.
The lowest down to $1785.
5, a new low in 23 months, and then returned to the 1800 mark oscillation, obviously there is still some support at this mark, so the aluminum price shock picked up, and in the middle of the month because the Hong Kong Stock Exchange intends to raise the upper limit of the outbound queue time from 40 days to 80 days, spot premium increased, LME aluminum warehouse continued to increase the number of written warehouse receipts, Lun aluminum intraday to get rid of the downturn market, broke through the 1900 mark pressure level in one fell swoop, the highest climbed to $1919, but lack of substantial benefits, aluminum prices eventually difficult to get rid of the shock trend, then the rally slowed down, Lun aluminum 1900 mark pressure remains, back to the 18 era, short-term expected shock continues , is expected to fluctuate in February in the range of 1820-1950 US dollars
.
In terms of the market, the holders of goods have insufficient confidence in the future market, the end of the year shipments increased, the market supply is abundant, but the downstream has been on holiday in the middle and late months, the demand for aluminum ingots has weakened, the enthusiasm for procurement has decreased, and the market is not optimistic about the future year, the amount of stockpiling is limited, the middleman transaction is acceptable, and the overall transaction is still weak
.
East China, fundamentally, capacity release, production reduction is less than expected, production increased, due to the Spring Festival factors, electrolytic aluminum inventory appeared in the accumulation stage, and the news, Sino-US trade negotiations did not have a significant positive appearance and the United States canceled sanctions on Rusal to put pressure on the trend of aluminum prices, January 2019 electrolytic aluminum prices continued the downward trend, as of the end of January, East China spot aluminum prices between 13340-13380 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan
from the end of December.
In addition, the domestic market will be closed from February 2 to February 10, and the spot price will be suspended
.
In South China, the price of aluminum ingots in South China fell first and then rose in January, pulling back some of the decline, but the overall center of gravity still shifted downward, as of the end of January, the price of aluminum ingot tickets was between 13620-13720 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton from the end of December, and the decline was wider
than that in East China.
In the spot market, holders maintain normal shipments, the market supply is still abundant, downstream procurement is small, and transactions are mostly reflected in traders
.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
This month's LME aluminum inventory broke the previous downward trend and rebounded slightly, as of January 24, Lun aluminum inventory reached 1.
301 million tons, an increase of nearly 30,000 tons, or 2.
37%,
from the end of December last year.
As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the market closed early, making demand weak, this month's Shanghai Stock Exchange aluminum inventory also increased slightly, as of January 25, Shanghai Stock Exchange aluminum inventory was 689,000 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from December last year; an increase of 2.
45%; However, compared with the historical inventory of 990,000 tons since April 2018, it is down 30%, and the downward trend of inventory is slow
.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketJanuary scrap aluminum prices followed the aluminum price down, South China fell greatly, around 200 yuan, as of the end of January local machine aluminum mainstream price around 10200, other areas of the price is around 100 yuan, the current East China aluminum alloy spray coating price quotation around 10,000, broken bridge aluminum 8900 around, aluminum wire around 11300, 1 series scraps around 11,000, 6 series around
10,700.
Due to the impact of the Spring Festival factors, manufacturers and medium and large recycling sites in early January have a high enthusiasm for stocking, mainly because they are worried about the slow recovery of the market after the year, and the supply is difficult to find, but due to the market and some merchants taking a holiday in advance, the scrap aluminum market in January is in short supply, and the stock of manufacturers is not as expected
.
By the end of January, market trading was gradually deserted, manufacturers and recycling sites were mostly on holiday, and only a few large-scale recycled aluminum plants were still open during the Spring Festival; It is understood that manufacturers are mostly concentrated around the beginning of the tenth year to open the furnace, while recyclers choose to start work after the Lantern Festival
.
After the year scrap aluminum market returns to normal, it is expected that after the Lantern Festival, it is already in late February, it is expected that scrap aluminum prices are difficult to perform, but considering the tight supply of goods in the market after the holiday, it is also difficult to fall, the overall view is expected to February scrap aluminum prices rise and fall space is limited, manufacturers and recycling sites can
receive goods normally.
In addition, scrap aluminum prices were suspended from January 31 to February 11 and resumed
on the 12th.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
This month's aluminum price is strong outside and weak inside, Lun aluminum broke through the 1900 mark after falling, Shanghai aluminum is weak in shock, with a limited range of gains, the year is coming, the market is mostly on holiday and stoppage, demand is weak, and alumina prices continue to decline, aluminum price shock pattern unchanged, medium and long-term weak, February due to the Spring Festival holiday, February 2-February 10 domestic closed, is expected to continue the shock trend after the holiday, fluctuation range 13300-13600
.
Operationally, it still maintains a high sell-off
.
In terms of spot, as of January 29, East China spot aluminum quotation was 13260-13300 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan
from December last year.
spot discount 70; From the trend point of view, short-term aluminum prices are difficult to do, the market after the holiday is late, supply and demand are weak, aluminum price shock trend unchanged, it is expected that aluminum prices in February low operation, spot aluminum overall fluctuation range of 1.
32-13,400
.
