July 20 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From a fundamental point of view, the "ceiling" limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pressure of the dual carbon policy, coupled with the extension of the power curtailment time in Yunnan, have increased the pressure on aluminum supply; The downstream operating rate has declined seasonally, and demand has entered the off-season, but the demand for new energy has grown rapidly and has been good for a long time; From the perspective of inventory, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is seasonally destocked, but the destocking is not as smooth
as the same period of previous years.
Short-term macro sentiment is tangled, fundamentals are slightly improved, and in the long run, aluminum fundamentals are
well supported.

Recently, under the influence of multiple bearish news such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the sharp fall in crude oil, aluminum prices have been under pressure to pull back, and then returned to the range around 19,000; in addition, there is news that the National Development and Reform Commission is organizing the next round of storage plans, there are rumors that it will increase, market confidence has been frustrated again, but the short-term supply and demand side performance is still acceptable, the basic face of price support still exists, the decline in aluminum prices may slow down, continue to pay attention to the 19,000 support situation, the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see-based, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum may stop falling, the overall fluctuation is
。