July 25 Shanghai aluminum morning review

The impact of environmental protection on bauxite has not faded, its supply is still tight, and the elastic production of alumina has led to higher prices, which has raised the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, resulting in aluminum prices touching the cost line, and Shanghai aluminum has a margin of safety for long
.
Moreover, the National Assembly expressed support for expanding domestic demand and adjusting the structure to promote the development of the real economy, and the improvement of demand expectations has enhanced the confidence
of bulls.

From the recent continuous increase in positions far months, the capital market has entered the aluminum market again, and combined with the changes in the supply side of aluminum, aluminum prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, but it should be noted that in the sensitive time point where the accumulation of inventory is coming, the degree of inventory accumulation has not been preliminarily verified, and the early rise is easy to make the rally lose its coherence, resulting in a greater uncertainty of pullback
.
The main force of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run 14350~14500 yuan / ton
in the day.