June 10 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

On the macro front, concerns about government regulation of commodities remain.

From a fundamental point of view, the "ceiling" limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pressure of the dual carbon policy have highlighted the pressure on the supply side of aluminum; Downstream on-demand procurement, the overall transaction is general, but the demand for new energy is growing rapidly, and the demand is good for a long time; From the perspective of inventory, LME aluminum destocking slightly, Shanghai aluminum inventory remained stable, aluminum ingot destocking trend continued, overall, aluminum fundamentals are well supported
.
Negative emotions at the macro level are disturbed
.

At present, due to the continuous fermentation of the epidemic in Guangdong, the downstream spot market transportation has also been affected to a certain extent, and the power rationing problem in Yunnan, Guangguang and other places has not been completely lifted; Under the pressure of multiple policies, the upward trend of aluminum prices is relatively weak, and the increase rate has gradually slowed down; However, during the year, the consumption of photovoltaics, home appliances and other products has a strong performance compared with the same period, and aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level under the strong support of fundamentals, and it is recommended to be cautious in chasing up in
the short term.