First, the fundamentals
Data show that in May, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 3.
3609 million tons, and news of production reduction in the electrolytic aluminum industry in May was frequent, including Yunnan region that reduced production due to insufficient electricity, and Inner Mongolia region that reduced production due to carbon peak and carbon neutrality
Data show that in May 2021, China's alumina output was 6.
331 million tons, an increase of 13.
79% year-on-year, and the resumption of production capacity of alumina enterprises in May was released, which finally increased Nissan compared with April
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in May were 439,096.
5 tons, compared with 437,285 tons in April; the total export volume from January to May was 2,161,786.
7 tons, an increase of 7.
over the same period of the previous year of 2,010,542.
Customs data shows that China's alumina imports from January to May 2021 totaled 1.
1364 million tons, down 25.
05% year-on-year; From January to May this year, China's alumina exports totaled 36,400 tons, down 49.
15% year-on-year; From January to May this year, China's net alumina imports totaled 1.
1 million tons, down 23.
Among them, China's alumina imports in May 2021 were 145,200 tons, down 38.
24% month-on-month and 45.
94% year-on-year; China's alumina exports were 0.
47 million tons, down 45.
81% month-on-month and up 79.
33% year-on-year; China's net alumina imports were 140,500 tons, down 37.
95% month-on-month and 47.
In May and May, the national electrolytic aluminum output totaled 3.
317 million tons, an increase of 11.
3% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.
After entering mid-to-late June, electrolytic aluminum plants in Yunnan have resumed production one after another, but from the current situation, the recovery of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is relatively slow
It is expected that the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will continue to drop to 39 million tons
by the end of June.
The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday shows that the global aluminum market has a supply shortage of 588,000 tons
from January to April 2021.
In April 2021, the global aluminum market consumption was 6.
0925 million tons
Global aluminum demand from January to April 2021 was 23.
45 million mt, compared with 21.
146 million mt in the same period last year, an increase of 2.
304 million mt
Global aluminum production in April 2021 was 5.
7245 million tons, an increase of 5.
As of the end of April 2021, the global aluminum market inventory was 610,000 tons
Second, the market review
In June, Shanghai aluminum maintained a high range shock trend, remained in the range of 1.
8-19,000, the volatility was not large, and the overall price stabilized; although the main force once broke through the 19,000 mark, but failed to stand firm, as of the end of the month, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 18800, with a monthly cumulative decline of 0.
13%; In June, the macro and policy in the face of Shanghai aluminum price volatility continued to gradually decrease, the basic face of price support effect is significant, despite the dumping of reserves and national level control measures continue, but aluminum prices have always been above 1.
85 has a certain support, the decline is limited
In terms of the market, the aluminum price range fluctuated in June, traders operated more frequently, the market supply was abundant, but the demand of downstream enterprises weakened, especially in the second half of the year, it is understood that the downstream sectors such as aluminum plates and foils, profiles, automobiles and other downstream sectors are about to enter the real off-season, aluminum orders have declined, the demand for electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and the overall market transaction is not as good as in
As of the end of the month, the price of aluminum ingot tickets in South China was between 19070-19170 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the end of May, and the trend was slightly weaker than that in East China; In early June, due to the epidemic in Guangdong, departmental transportation was affected, and it mostly returned to normal
in the middle and late months.
Local aluminum companies also said that the off-season effect was visible, and orders declined
In East China, prices soared back in May, and prices fell into volatility in June; Electrolytic aluminum storage news landed, the market bearish was digested in advance, the impact on aluminum prices is limited, plus upper production, production reduction and other factors disturbance, electrolytic aluminum prices up and down dilemma, the lower 18,000 support is strong, the upper 19,000 pressure price is heavier, the overall fell into a range adjustment
As of the end of June, East China spot aluminum was 18760-18800 yuan / ton, which was stable
compared with the end of May.
LME aluminum inventories in June continued the downward trend in May, with LME aluminium stocks at 1578075 tonnes by the end of the month, down 140225 tonnes from the end of May, a drop of 8.
In early June, Shanghai aluminum inventories continued a rapid downward trend, but from the middle of the year, the magnitude slowed down significantly, basically maintaining a steady decline, as of the end of June, Shanghai aluminum inventories were 288741 tons, down 40,831 tons from the end of April, a decrease of 12.
Fourth, the waste market
In June, the aluminum price fell into a volatile market, and the overall fluctuation was not much compared with May, but the difference in scrap aluminum market varieties was more obvious, the price of aluminum alloy doors and windows, aluminum wire was steadily raised, and the price of raw aluminum fell more obviously; At present, the aluminum alloy spraying old material in East China is around 14400, the broken bridge material is around 13300, and the mainstream of cans is around 12,200; and the price of raw aluminum is generally reduced, and the mainstream of machine aluminum is currently
In terms of the market, the most obvious change in June transaction can be said to be aluminum alloy ingots, due to the impact of the off-season, corporate orders decreased, inventory increased, aluminum alloy ingots fell into a situation that is easy to fall and difficult to rise, ADC12 aluminum alloy fell by about 600 yuan in a month, resulting in the price of raw aluminum being suppressed
Aluminum alloy materials, aluminum wire, 1-6 series scraps are more popular, the price is firm, manufacturers are looking for more goods, and the overall market transaction is not as good as in
With the arrival of the off-season, it is expected that the volume will continue to decline
Under the influence of the off-season, it is expected that scrap aluminum will be difficult to perform well, and the overall or still weak, but the source of scrap aluminum is tightly supported, and there is not much room for decline, and holders can
hold a small amount of goods.
In June, Shanghai aluminum maintained a high range shock trend, with a monthly cumulative decline of 0.
13%; In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise moderately, but the pressure to break through the 19,000 mark is large, still unable to stand, or will continue to decline, the main force of Shanghai aluminum can pay attention to the range of 1.
In the past, prices will rebound to a certain extent in the period after the end of the dump, especially when
the dumping volume does not meet market expectations.
The current market that sells less than expected reflects the rapid rebound of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals at the end of the peak season still have some support, and it is expected to show a strong trend of volatility in the short term
However, at the same time, if the National Reserve responds to the previous National Development and Reform Commission's monitoring of commodity prices, and carries out targeted work to ensure supply and price stability, according to the overall reaction of the reserve market and price changes, it is not ruled out that the State Reserve Bureau will dynamically increase the scale of storage in the future, and with the peak season turning weaker, aluminum prices will face strong upward pressure