June 22 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

On the macro front, Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2022 and increased the probability of a recession in the United States in the past two years; The Federation of German Industries lowered its 2022 economic growth forecast by 2 percentage points to around
1.
5%.

On the supply side, the profit of alumina smelting was stable, and the newly expanded production capacity was steadily landed, but the import volume was suppressed, and the overall supply of alumina became loose; External interference factors have faded, superimposed smelting profits are good, and the output of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be about 3.
34 million tons in June, but there is still support in terms of costs, and there is still a gap in imports
.
In terms of consumption, after the continuous correction in aluminum prices, the procurement demand of processing enterprises has improved, but overseas demand is also facing downward pressure
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 68,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 1,000 tons
.
The impact of the Guangdong aluminum ingot storage event still exists, and the domestic supply side is expected to increase, but the downstream just need to be purchased after the price pullback, and the high energy price still supports the aluminum price, it is recommended to maintain the wait-and-see
.