June 4 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

At present, the water level of electrolytic aluminum social inventory remains at 962,000 tons, and the overall destocking in May is 153,000 tons, which is slower than the same period of previous years, and the increase in terminal demand this year is more obvious, limited by the poor price transmission in the early stage to inhibit the willingness to stock up down, the cycle of the peak season shows a backward phenomenon to a certain extent, and the demand season is expected to continue to maintain steadily; in addition, the National Assembly clearly proposed to curb the excessive rise in commodity prices, and implement a series of regulatory measures
such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the decline in inventories should lead to a stronger structure, but the recent rumors about the dumping of reserves have re-fermented, and it is expected that the specific dumping measures will be announced next Monday, and the dumping volume will also rise from 300,000-500,000 tons in the previous period to 700,000-800,000 tons
.
As unfalsifiable information hit market confidence, the weak performance of aluminum prices is understandable
.
But the news of the sell-off has been 2-3 months since April, and it is difficult to quantify
how much the current price has reflected.