Lancet Infect Dis: Impact of the new crown outbreak on malaria control efforts in Africa.

Africa has made significant progress in eliminating malaria since 2000, but the spread of the new crown outbreak has led to a disruption in malaria control, and researchers have recently assessed the impact of varying degrees of disruption on malaria morbidity and mortality.
Using established space-time Bayesian geostatization models, the researchers geospatially estimated the clinical morbidity and mortality of malaria in malaria-endemic countries in Africa and included up-to-date data on parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net coverage (ITN) coverage and effective treatment rates.
researchers established a baseline burden of expected malaria in Africa without coVID-19 outbreak interference, and analyzed nine hypotheses, with varying degrees of impact on antimalarial drug therapy and DISTRIBUTION of ITNs in different situations.
model studies show that in the baseline scenario of uninterrupted malaria control, 215.2 million people will be infected in malaria-endemic countries in Africa by 2020, resulting in 386,400 deaths.
As access to antimalarial drugs decreases further, models predict that the number of cases and deaths will increase: when antimalarial drug coverage declines by 25%, the number of infected persons is 224.1 million, resulting in 487.9 million deaths; A 50 per cent reduction would result in 233.1 million infections and 597.4 million deaths, and a 75 per cent reduction in antimalarial drug coverage would result in 242.3 million cases and 715.2 million deaths.
outbreak affects ITN mass distribution activities in 2020, regular ITN distribution will be reduced by 25%-75%, and when reduced by 25%, malaria infections will increase to 230.5 million, resulting in 41.1 A 50 per cent reduction would result in 238.0 million cases and 415,500 deaths, and a 75 per cent reduction would result in 234 million cases and 417.6 million deaths.
If ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were reduced simultaneously by 25 per cent, malaria infections would increase to 240.5 million, resulting in 520.9 million deaths;
model study suggests that malaria mortality in Africa will double in 2020 and lead to a much drastic increase in subsequent years, with antimalarial efforts in Africa severely affected by the new crown outbreak.
in order to avoid 20 years of efforts to combat malaria, the new crown outbreak prevention and control and malaria prevention and control need to be raised to the same status.
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