Landscape and climatic factors can predict the prevalence of Lyme disease bacteria

The study, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, clarifies the relationship between two roles in the ecology of Lyme disease: bacteria and the environment

"We know Lyme disease is a growing threat to public health, but we haven't found a good way

In the current study, Tran, Brisson, Jensen and colleagues focused on the factors that affect Borrelia burgdorferi, and they measured its prevalence by determining the proportion of black-legged ticks sampled to infect the bacterium

To build their model, the research team collected data

1) landscape factors, such as altitude, fire history, distance from infrastructure such as roads;

2) the size of vertebrate host populations, including humans, bears, birds and deer;

3) Local temperature, humidity and other monitoring conditions at the time of collection and the strength of the collection of specimens; And

4) Climatic indicators, such as monthly average temperature, precipitation and the number of days when the

By grouping these variables in a variety of ways using powerful computer models, researchers can tease out which variables have the most impact on

"The main finding is that climate is a major feature

While previous analyses have found that increased interference — such as fires, roads through forests, and broken habitats — has led to an increase in Borrelia burgdorferi populations, the University of Pennsylvania-led team found that less disturbed, more complete habitats tended to be associated

After developing a model using data collected in 2009-18, they tested it to see to what extent the model predicted the prevalence and distribution

"We found it to be very accurate," Tran said

Interventions can be public health messages that warn visitors to the park, such as the risk of disease, "reminding them to do tick screening," Tran said

Journal Reference:

1. Tam Tran, Melissa A.