Latest data 2021 U.S. soybean planted area and quarterly soybean inventory report

At noon on June 30, US Eastern Time, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released two authoritative reports on the 2021 US crop planting area and quarterly inventory
.
The crop planting area report reflects the planting area and estimated harvest area of soybeans , corn , wheat and other crops at the end of the planting season of this year , while the quarterly inventory report reflects the stocks of soybeans and other crops in various states in the United States as of June 1 this year.

.

 

Let’s take a look at the market environment of US soybeans at the time of the report.

International market environment

 

The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's Office of Chief Economist (OCE) released the 2021-2031 Agricultural Outlook report at the end of February this year, predicting the long-term trend of the soybean market
.
As the overall world economy continues to recover, Sino-US trade relations are rebuilt, and the global demand for edible vegetable oil and soybean products used in livestock and poultry feed is increasing, the outlook for global soybean and soybean product demand in the next ten years will show an optimistic trend
.

 

USDA's June release of the Global Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Report shows that the global soybean production in 2021/22 is estimated to be 385.
52 million tons, which is basically the same as the May estimate, while the increase in Brazil's 2020/21 soybean production has led to an estimate of ending stocks.
This is an increase of 1.
45 million tons from the May estimate, reaching 92.
55 million tons
.
Global soybean production in 2020/21 is estimated at 364.
07 million tons, an increase of 1.
12 million tons from the May estimate, and the ending stock estimate is raised to 88 million tons, which was estimated at 86.
55 million tons in May
.

 

　　In South America, Brazil's production situation is expected to be more optimistic
.
USDA in June raised Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production estimate to a record 137 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last month’s estimate, and an increase of 8.
5 million tons or 7% from the previous season’s record harvest of 128.
5 million tons
.
The Argentine soybean production forecast remains the same as last month, at 47 million tons
.
The analysis predicts that as the country is still struggling with the new crown epidemic, farmers’ sales have slowed down despite continued high inflation, and yields have continued to decline.
The country’s old crop production in 2020/21 is still at risk of downward adjustment
.

 

　　China market environment

 

　　In 2020, China's soybean imports hit a record of 100 million tons
.
The USDA June supply and demand report estimates that China's imports in 2020/22 will be 103 million tons; in 2020/21 (October to September of the following year) imports are estimated to be 100 million tons
.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in June showed that soybean imports from January to May this year reached 38.
234 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.
8%
.
This is mainly due to the continuous increase in the stock of live pigs and the restorative growth of feed demand for animal husbandry to stimulate China's soybean imports
.
However, there are also certain uncertainties in the Chinese market
.
Due to declining pig profits and rising feed costs, the substitution of soybean meal for grains with higher protein content than corn, such as wheat and barley, may slow the pace of China's soybean imports
.

 

　　The General Administration of Customs of China said in June that the import and export data from January to May this year showed that the United States was China's third largest trading partner
.
USDA’s weekly export sales report released on June 24 showed that as of June 17, the total shipments of soybean exports from the United States to China (Mainland China) amounted to 35.
03 million tons, which was higher than the 12.
80 million tons in the same period last year; The number of ships was 752,000 tons, compared with 2.
895 million tons in the same period last year
.

 

　　Analysis and Forecast of US Soybean Planting and Production

 

　　USDA's soybean planting intention report released in March showed that the planned soybean planting area in the United States is expected to be 87.
6 million acres in 2021, an increase of 5% from last year, which is lower than market expectations; out of 29 states, 23 states have soybean planting intentions.
The area increased or remained unchanged from last year
.
As of March 1, US soybean stocks stood at 1.
56 billion cats, a decrease of 31% from the same period last year
.

 

　　In terms of planting area, the market expects the expected range of US soybean crop planting area to be between 87.
9 million and 90.
4 million acres, which is slightly less than 90 million acres on average, and 2.
3 million acres higher than the planting intention on March 31
.
According to the USDA Crop Growth Weekly report, as of the week of June 20, 2021, the soybean planting rate in the United States was 97%
.

 

　　In terms of inventory, the ending stocks of U.
S.
soybeans for 2020/22 are estimated to be 155 million bushels, and the ending stocks for 2020/21 are estimated to be 135 million bushels
.
Market analysis predicts that as of June 1st, US soybean old crop inventory data will be tightened to 787 million bushels
.
If the forecast is realized, this inventory will be less than half of the inventory on March 1, which is a significant drop from the total amount of 1.
381 billion bushels in the same period last year
.

 

　　The latest data shows:

 

　　According to the report, the soybean planting area in 2021 is about 87.
56 million acres, an increase of 5% compared to the previous year, and 28 of the 29 states have increased or the same soybean planting area compared with the previous year
.
In terms of inventory, the soybean inventory data for the current season on June 1 was 767 million bushels, a 44% decrease from the same period last year
.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean planted area and predicted harvest area in 2021

 

Soybean stocks in June 2021