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According to the National Development and Reform Commission on January 9, according to monitoring, from January 3 to 6, the national average pig grain ratio was 5.
93:1, in accordance with the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Price Stability in the Pork Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), entering the three-level warning range of excessive decline
.
Pig farming is expected to be profitable in two weeks, falling by more than 80%
According to the plan, the pig-to-grain ratio refers to the ratio of the weekly pig exit price to the average wholesale price of second-class corn in major wholesale markets across the country
.
When the Plan was released in June 2021, the head of the relevant department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in an interview with the Securities Times China reporter that the "pig grain price comparison" indicator is an important indicator that directly reflects the comparative relationship between the cost and benefit of pig breeding, which has attracted widespread attention from the pig breeding industry, and the Plan continues to use this indicator
.
Generally speaking, when the pig grain ratio is lower than 6:1, the NDRC issues a three-level warning of excessive decline; The pig grain ratio was at 5:1~6:1 for three consecutive weeks, and a secondary warning was issued; When the pig grain ratio is less than 5:1, a first-level warning
is issued.
According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the pig price on January 4, 2023 decreased by 7.
53% compared with the previous period (December 28, 2022), and the pig grain price ratio decreased by 7.
63%
from the previous period.
In addition, the pig feed price information jointly released by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang Information on January 9 also showed that the pig feed price ratio (the ratio of pig price to feed price) fell by 7.
56% last week, and the average profit of pig breeding heads in the future fell from 190.
26 yuan in the previous period to 36.
43 yuan last week, a drop of more than 80%.
Lack of demand triggers rapid decline in pig prices Agencies expect a slight recovery on the eve of the Spring Festival
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that as of 14 o'clock on January 9, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 24.
44 yuan / kg, down 2.
7%
from last Friday.
The analysis pointed out that in the first week of January 2023, domestic pig prices were mainly
reduced.
The enthusiasm for breeding slaughter during the week was still high, and although there was a short-term anti-price and reluctant selling sentiment during the period, the favorable boost of the terminal market was insufficient, and the supply and demand continued to be in an imbalanced situation
.
As pig prices fall to a relatively low level, the breeding end is more resistant to price reductions, and it is expected that short-term pig prices or low consolidation will be the mainstay, and the pig-to-feed ratio may
rise slightly.
Insufficient demand has become the main reason for the recent rapid decline in pig prices, industry insiders also told the Securities Times Brokerage China reporter that every year around the winter solstice is the peak season of pork consumption, according to the historical market, pig prices are in a stable or rising trend, but low demand causes oversupply, resulting in a rapid decline
in pig prices.
Wang Qi, an analyst at China Post Securities, pointed out that the market continued to have strong supply and weak demand in December 2022, on the one hand, because the group's aquaculture enterprises increased significantly in order to complete the annual slaughter target; Under the influence of the sharp decline in pig prices, small and medium-sized loose and secondary fattening were panic-out; Sufficient supply of pigs in the market; On the other hand, the demand for pickles is less than expected, and the demand side continues to be weak
under the impact of the epidemic.
"Entering January, it is expected that the group's output will decline month-on-month; At the same time, the peak of stocking before the Spring Festival arrives, and demand is expected to improve
.
Wang Qi said
.
Guolian Securities Research Report also pointed out that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the demand for holiday reserve meat increased consumer demand, but the market supply was relatively sufficient, and this round of growth was limited
.
Guojin Securities Research Report also believes that near the Spring Festival, downstream channel dealers and slaughterhouses will stock up before the festival, coupled with the improvement of daily consumption last year, it is expected that the demand side will continue to improve
.
However, the impact of the early pen fattening pigs on the supply side remains, and the increase in pig prices is expected to be limited
.
"After the Spring Festival, the consumption side is expected to continue to improve, coupled with the poor consumption of pickled wax this year, which may promote the consumption of fresh pork, while the supply side may shrink in the next year, and the price of live pigs is expected to rise
after the year.
"
The above-mentioned industry insiders told the Securities Times Brokerage China reporter that the pig price before the Spring Festival (pig) is expected to be the same as in the near future, fluctuating around 16 yuan / kg, and at the same time, from the data of previous years, pork consumption will gradually recover
from April to May.
The sales revenue of pig enterprises generally fell in December
Affected by the continuous decline in pork prices, the recent sales data disclosed by major listed companies in December 2022, the average sales price and sales revenue of pig products generally decreased month-on-month, while still maintaining a substantial increase
compared with December 2021.
Leading Makihara announced that the average sales price of commercial pigs in December 2022 was 18.
61 yuan/kg, down 20.
23% from November and up 26.
17%
from December 2021.
The sharp decline in the average sales price dragged down the sales revenue, and the company's pig sales in December 2022 reached a new high of 6.
027 million head in the year, an increase of more than 15% from November, and the sales revenue still decreased by 11.
23%
month-on-month.
In December 2022, 1,873,200 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products) were sold, with an income of 4.
29 billion yuan, and the average sales price of hairy pigs was 18.
8 yuan/kg, down 4.
64%, 27.
69% and 22.
02% respectively from the previous month, and an increase of 52.
67%, 87.
25% and 15.
98%
year-on-year, respectively.
New Hope sold 1,566,900 pigs in December, a month-on-month change of -7.
34% and a year-on-year change of 46.
22%; revenue was RMB2,876 million, a month-on-month change of -17.
40% and a year-on-year change of 87.
48%; The average sales price of commercial pigs was 18.
76 yuan/kg, a month-on-month change of -19.
48% and a year-on-year change of 27.
97%.
Tiankang Biologics announced the December 2022 pig sales report on the evening of the 9th, which also showed that the company sold 198,800 pigs in December 2022, an increase of 11.
81% month-on-month and 34.
96% year-on-year; Sales revenue was 371 million yuan, sales revenue decreased by 2.
88% month-on-month and increased by 64.
89%
year-on-year.
Jinxinnong announced on the evening of the 9th that the company's total pig sales in December 2022 were 39,100 heads, with a total sales revenue of 73.
6288 million yuan, the average pig sales price was 21.
43 yuan / kg (the average price of commercial pigs after excluding the influence of piglets and breeding pigs was 19.
77 yuan / kg), the month-on-month changes in pig sales, sales revenue and sales price were -69.
75%, -71.
64% and -18.
52%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes were -81.
01%, -71.
03% and 22.
74%
。
However, Zhengbang Technology announced on the evening of the 9th that it sold 487,100 pigs (including 278,600 piglets and 208,500 commercial pigs) in December 2022, an increase of 64.
67% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 39.
51%; Sales revenue was 667 million yuan, up 29.
86% month-on-month and down 48.
34%
year-on-year.
;
;According to the National Development and Reform Commission on January 9, according to monitoring, from January 3 to 6, the national average pig grain ratio was 5.
93:1, in accordance with the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Price Stability in the Pork Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), entering the three-level warning range of excessive decline
.
Pig farming is expected to be profitable in two weeks, falling by more than 80%
Pig farming is expected to be profitable in two weeks, falling by more than 80%According to the plan, the pig-to-grain ratio refers to the ratio of the weekly pig exit price to the average wholesale price of second-class corn in major wholesale markets across the country
.
When the Plan was released in June 2021, the head of the relevant department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in an interview with the Securities Times China reporter that the "pig grain price comparison" indicator is an important indicator that directly reflects the comparative relationship between the cost and benefit of pig breeding, which has attracted widespread attention from the pig breeding industry, and the Plan continues to use this indicator
.
Generally speaking, when the pig grain ratio is lower than 6:1, the NDRC issues a three-level warning of excessive decline; The pig grain ratio was at 5:1~6:1 for three consecutive weeks, and a secondary warning was issued; When the pig grain ratio is less than 5:1, a first-level warning
is issued.
According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the pig price on January 4, 2023 decreased by 7.
53% compared with the previous period (December 28, 2022), and the pig grain price ratio decreased by 7.
63%
from the previous period.
In addition, the pig feed price information jointly released by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang Information on January 9 also showed that the pig feed price ratio (the ratio of pig price to feed price) fell by 7.
56% last week, and the average profit of pig breeding heads in the future fell from 190.
26 yuan in the previous period to 36.
43 yuan last week, a drop of more than 80%.
Lack of demand triggers rapid decline in pig prices Agencies expect a slight recovery on the eve of the Spring Festival
Lack of demand triggers rapid decline in pig prices Agencies expect a slight recovery on the eve of the Spring FestivalMonitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that as of 14 o'clock on January 9, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 24.
44 yuan / kg, down 2.
7%
from last Friday.
The analysis pointed out that in the first week of January 2023, domestic pig prices were mainly
reduced.
The enthusiasm for breeding slaughter during the week was still high, and although there was a short-term anti-price and reluctant selling sentiment during the period, the favorable boost of the terminal market was insufficient, and the supply and demand continued to be in an imbalanced situation
.
As pig prices fall to a relatively low level, the breeding end is more resistant to price reductions, and it is expected that short-term pig prices or low consolidation will be the mainstay, and the pig-to-feed ratio may
rise slightly.
Insufficient demand has become the main reason for the recent rapid decline in pig prices, industry insiders also told the Securities Times Brokerage China reporter that every year around the winter solstice is the peak season of pork consumption, according to the historical market, pig prices are in a stable or rising trend, but low demand causes oversupply, resulting in a rapid decline
in pig prices.
Wang Qi, an analyst at China Post Securities, pointed out that the market continued to have strong supply and weak demand in December 2022, on the one hand, because the group's aquaculture enterprises increased significantly in order to complete the annual slaughter target; Under the influence of the sharp decline in pig prices, small and medium-sized loose and secondary fattening were panic-out; Sufficient supply of pigs in the market; On the other hand, the demand for pickles is less than expected, and the demand side continues to be weak
under the impact of the epidemic.
"Entering January, it is expected that the group's output will decline month-on-month; At the same time, the peak of stocking before the Spring Festival arrives, and demand is expected to improve
.
Wang Qi said
.
Guolian Securities Research Report also pointed out that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the demand for holiday reserve meat increased consumer demand, but the market supply was relatively sufficient, and this round of growth was limited
.
Guojin Securities Research Report also believes that near the Spring Festival, downstream channel dealers and slaughterhouses will stock up before the festival, coupled with the improvement of daily consumption last year, it is expected that the demand side will continue to improve
.
However, the impact of the early pen fattening pigs on the supply side remains, and the increase in pig prices is expected to be limited
.
"After the Spring Festival, the consumption side is expected to continue to improve, coupled with the poor consumption of pickled wax this year, which may promote the consumption of fresh pork, while the supply side may shrink in the next year, and the price of live pigs is expected to rise
after the year.
"
The above-mentioned industry insiders told the Securities Times Brokerage China reporter that the pig price before the Spring Festival (pig) is expected to be the same as in the near future, fluctuating around 16 yuan / kg, and at the same time, from the data of previous years, pork consumption will gradually recover
from April to May.
The sales revenue of pig enterprises generally fell in December
The sales revenue of pig enterprises generally fell in DecemberAffected by the continuous decline in pork prices, the recent sales data disclosed by major listed companies in December 2022, the average sales price and sales revenue of pig products generally decreased month-on-month, while still maintaining a substantial increase
compared with December 2021.
Leading Makihara announced that the average sales price of commercial pigs in December 2022 was 18.
61 yuan/kg, down 20.
23% from November and up 26.
17%
from December 2021.
The sharp decline in the average sales price dragged down the sales revenue, and the company's pig sales in December 2022 reached a new high of 6.
027 million head in the year, an increase of more than 15% from November, and the sales revenue still decreased by 11.
23%
month-on-month.
In December 2022, 1,873,200 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products) were sold, with an income of 4.
29 billion yuan, and the average sales price of hairy pigs was 18.
8 yuan/kg, down 4.
64%, 27.
69% and 22.
02% respectively from the previous month, and an increase of 52.
67%, 87.
25% and 15.
98%
year-on-year, respectively.
New Hope sold 1,566,900 pigs in December, a month-on-month change of -7.
34% and a year-on-year change of 46.
22%; revenue was RMB2,876 million, a month-on-month change of -17.
40% and a year-on-year change of 87.
48%; The average sales price of commercial pigs was 18.
76 yuan/kg, a month-on-month change of -19.
48% and a year-on-year change of 27.
97%.
Tiankang Biologics announced the December 2022 pig sales report on the evening of the 9th, which also showed that the company sold 198,800 pigs in December 2022, an increase of 11.
81% month-on-month and 34.
96% year-on-year; Sales revenue was 371 million yuan, sales revenue decreased by 2.
88% month-on-month and increased by 64.
89%
year-on-year.
Jinxinnong announced on the evening of the 9th that the company's total pig sales in December 2022 were 39,100 heads, with a total sales revenue of 73.
6288 million yuan, the average pig sales price was 21.
43 yuan / kg (the average price of commercial pigs after excluding the influence of piglets and breeding pigs was 19.
77 yuan / kg), the month-on-month changes in pig sales, sales revenue and sales price were -69.
75%, -71.
64% and -18.
52%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes were -81.
01%, -71.
03% and 22.
74%
。
However, Zhengbang Technology announced on the evening of the 9th that it sold 487,100 pigs (including 278,600 piglets and 208,500 commercial pigs) in December 2022, an increase of 64.
67% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 39.
51%; Sales revenue was 667 million yuan, up 29.
86% month-on-month and down 48.
34%
year-on-year.
