Leveraging photovoltaics, the price of vinyl acetate has risen for a whole year

In this year's ups and downs in the chemical market, there is a product that stands out, the price rises from the beginning of the year to the end of the year and repeatedly refreshes the historical high price
.
This is vinyl acetate
.
Data show that the price of vinyl acetate rose by 113.
64% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and by 120% year-on-year in the second half of the year.
The price increase during the year was 9,000 yuan / ton
.

The boom in the vinyl acetate market is mainly due to the development of the photovoltaic market
.

In terms of the industrial chain, the main downstream of vinyl acetate is ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA), and EVA is the key material for photovoltaic module packaging
.
In recent years, as an important support and part of the realization of the dual carbon goal, the photovoltaic industry has officially become the main body of the new power system and an indispensable alternative energy source
.
At the Climate Ambition Summit held on December 12 last year, the Chinese government publicly stated for the first time that by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation should not be less than 1.
2 billion kilowatts
.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of August this year, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in China reached 275.
13 million kilowatts, accounting for 12.
05% of the national installed capacity of power generation; from January to August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was 22.
05 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase.
6.
88 million kilowatts
.
According to incomplete statistics, in October this year alone, 16 policies were issued from the central to local governments to encourage the development of the photovoltaic industry
.

Driven by the photovoltaic market, the domestic EVA market demand has grown explosively
.
Previously, China's photovoltaic grade EVA was mainly imported from overseas, and the external dependence was about 65%
.
The main import destinations are Japan, South Korea and Singapore
.
Taking into account the future market demand, domestic petrochemical companies have announced plans to expand EVA production this year
.
Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
is actively promoting the second phase of EVA resin project, of which 200,000 tons of tubular EVA resin capacity and 5 tons of modified capacity are expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023, with an annual output of one million tons in the long-term plan; Sinopec Yangzi Petroleum Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
invested in the construction of a 100,000-ton/year EVA plant and successfully produced photovoltaic-grade EVA resin in August; Zhejiang Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
's 300,000-ton photovoltaic-grade EVA project is also in progress
.
The continuous production of new EVA devices and the trend of huge profits have formed a strong stimulus to the vinyl acetate industry and pushed the price of vinyl acetate to rise sharply
.

In addition to the above reasons, the price increase of vinyl acetate this year is also affected by raw materials and the operating rate of enterprises
.

In terms of raw materials, there are currently two main preparation methods for vinyl acetate in China: one is prepared from ethylene, acetic acid and hydrogen, and the other is prepared from natural gas or calcium carbide to prepare acetylene and then synthesized with acetic acid
.
Both processes are inseparable from acetic acid
.
Since February, the acetic acid market has been tight due to the centralized shutdown of the equipment, and the price has begun to rise sharply, which has increased the production cost of vinyl acetate enterprises
.
In addition, because the northwest region is greatly affected by domestic power and production restrictions, the local calcium carbide prices soared, which in turn drove the cost of vinyl acetate enterprises to rise sharply
.

In terms of operating rate, in the first half of the year, many companies announced shutdowns for maintenance
.
Among them, the 260,000-ton capacity of Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Energy Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
was shut down for maintenance for 20 days in April, and another month of maintenance was announced in June; the 500,000-ton capacity of Sinopec Chongqing Chuanwei Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
was announced for 10-day maintenance; Celanese Nanjing The 300,000-ton capacity of the Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
will be overhauled for two weeks in April, and then overhauled for another two weeks in June
.
After September, as the energy consumption dual control policy gradually became stricter, vinyl acetate plants in many regions had to maintain low-load operation
.

The Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing in the first quarter of next year, which may impose significant restrictions on the production and transportation of vinyl acetate-related products, resulting in tighter market supply
.
In addition, there is still a shortage of supply in the domestic photovoltaic-grade EVA market.
It is a high probability event that companies continue to expand production capacity, which supports the short-term market of vinyl acetate
.
On the whole, under the intervention of multiple factors, China's vinyl acetate market will still run at a high level next year
.