Live pig prices have rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks, and will rise again before the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival...

Recently, pork prices have recovered

Why has the price of pork, which has been sluggish since the beginning of this year, rebounded? Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, summarized it as two reasons for the seasonal increase in consumer demand and the short-term tight supply of fat pigs

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, also has this view

The supply of bacon during the peak season is tight, and the price of live pigs rebounds for 8 consecutive weeks

According to the monitoring results of 500 bazaars nationwide by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of live pigs has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks starting from the second week of October, and has rebounded from 11.

"Starting from mid-to-late October, our country began to make bacon from north to south

At the same time, people prefer to use big pigs and fat pigs to make bacon.

The Guotai Junan Macro Research team also gave another reason.

"Except for these short-term factors, the price rebound is actually due to similar reasons as the rise in late June and early July

At the same time, the two pork price increases corresponded to the first and second rounds of this year's frozen pork purchasing and storage.

The continuous rebound is not an inflection point, and the price of pigs is still in the process of falling

Does the continuous rebound mean that pork prices have reached an inflection point? Usually, the determination of the turning point first depends on the changes in core indicators.

"At present, the stock of reproductive sows is still higher than the normal level

Just because of the emergence of some other seasonal factors, the magnitude of the rebound has exceeded market expectations, but it does not mean that the inflection point of pig prices has arrived

The price increase may end before New Year's Day, and the price will be stable during the double festival period.

New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, will this round of price increases continue until then? Is there still plenty of market supply before the holiday? Judging from the current trend, Zhu Zengyong believes that the supply of commercial pigs is still very abundant before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the price of pork before the holiday may be lower than the current price level

According to Zhu Zengyong's analysis, the peak demand before the holiday is generally in December and January.

In other words, this round of price increases may end before New Year's Day