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On Thursday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate, with the highest 58970 yuan / ton and the lowest 58450 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 58740 yuan / ton, down 0.
07% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $7984 / ton, up 0.
16%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) CNN quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Biden's aides recently told allies in Congress that the size of the aid package is about $2 trillion
.
(2) Customs data showed that China's copper concentrate imports in December were 1.
89 million tons, up 3% from 1.
831 million tons in November, but down from 1.
928 million tons
in December 2019.
(3) China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 512332 tons in December, down 8.
7% from 561,310.
7 tons in November, and the lowest monthly import
since May.
Spot analysis: On January 14, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58630-58770 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58700 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders shipped at a high price, the inquiry was positive but more wait-and-see, the downstream consumption was general, and the transaction was average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 23,585 tons on Thursday, down 2,308 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days; On January 13, LME copper stocks were 102,550 tonnes, down 1,200 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract are 70758 lots, a daily increase of 267 lots, short positions are 74317 lots, a daily increase of 396 lots, a net short position of 3559 lots, a daily increase of 129 lots, long and short increases, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 continued to fluctuate
on January 14.
The Fed may not continue to allow the market to ferment its early tightening expectations, and expectations of the upcoming Biden administration to increase spending are heating up, while the market expects the economy to continue to recover after the epidemic, and the dollar index is in turmoil
.
Recently, the volume of copper mine arrivals has declined, domestic copper mine inventories have fallen to a low level, copper ore processing fees TC have continued to decline, and copper smelting costs are high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; At the end of the year, the downstream market demand gradually weakened, and the domestic copper inventory showed a slight recovery trend from the low, and the upward momentum of copper prices weakened
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract reduced its position and increased its position, and long and short trading was cautious, and it is expected that the short-term volatility will continue
.
