Long-term acrylonitrile market is not optimistic

New capacity release demand support is not strong

Following the commissioning of the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the second phase of Korul acrylonitrile project, Lihuayi's new acrylonitrile plant is also scheduled to be commissioned in mid-December

Significant increase in production capacity

"However, the new production capacity of Lihuayi Acrylonitrile has entered the countdown, and the two major factories in Shanghai SECCO and Serbang that were overhauled have resumed full production.

In addition, Tianchen Qixiang’s 130,000-ton/year acrylonitrile new plant is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of this year or early next year, and the 260,000-ton/year new plant in Serbon Phase III is also scheduled to be put into operation in January next year, which will add another 390,000 tons by then.

In addition to the ABS industry entering the capacity release period, demand in other industries is unlikely to increase significantly.

Raw material market under pressure

From the perspective of raw material propylene, the rapid expansion of production capacity has put pressure on the market, and it is difficult to support the cost of acrylonitrile

According to statistics, as of the end of November, China’s total propylene production capacity was 49.

Specifically, this year's newly added propane dehydrogenation (PDH) production capacity of propylene was 2.

Looking forward to 2022, Meng Xianxing analyzes that the growth rate of propylene production capacity will far exceed the growth rate of demand, and the burden on the industry will increase.

In addition, there are some projects that extend the original downstream equipment to the upstream industrial chain, and these projects will gradually squeeze out the original market share

Demand support is not strong

For the downstream of acrylonitrile, the ABS market performed well this year, but this good momentum ended in the fourth quarter with the increase in production capacity

From the perspective of ABS supply, Zhangzhou Chimei Chemical announced on September 8 that its new 450,000-ton/year ABS production line was officially mass-produced, and it is expected to run at full capacity in December

Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, said that although ABS production capacity is also released simultaneously, the magnitude is much lower than that of upstream raw materials, so it does not have a strong effect on acrylonitrile lifting

In addition, from the perspective of terminal demand, in recent years, the rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, Internet celebrity home appliances, and 5G networks have caused the demand for chips to continue to grow