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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > Looking forward to 2004: RMB exchange rate

    Looking forward to 2004: RMB exchange rate

    • Last Update: 2008-11-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Introduction: since overseas media reported for a period, the issue of RMB exchange rate has become one of the focuses of the world However, although many discussions on the exchange rate of RMB are different, they seem to have some truth Simply speaking, the exchange rate of each country's currency seems to be a financial market problem, but in fact, it is a dynamic response to the comparison of national strength of all countries in the world The level of China's handling of the exchange rate issue will directly affect China's future development and even the world's future development In fact, the issue of the exchange rate of China's RMB is not whether to appreciate against the US dollar, but whether to peg the devaluation of the US dollar Keeping the value of RMB stable, that is to say, keeping the gold content or purchasing power of RMB stable, should be the most important factor for RMB exchange rate to achieve the management goal The stability of RMB exchange rate should be the stability of various currency exchange rates related to RMB market movement, rather than the "stability" of the exchange rate of the US dollar, which has been greatly devalued It is a problem of "social and economic engineering" to control the exchange rate of RMB market scientifically and avoid the great fluctuation of social economy In the 21st century, the RMB will appreciate steadily and moderately against the US dollar Improving the purchasing power of the RMB is an important measure to effectively enhance China's national strength and make the RMB go to the world to become a "hard currency" in the world financial and monetary market It is also an important measure for China to become a major country responsible for the 21st century It is imperative for CDA to adjust and control the exchange rate This was once the practice of some small Latin American countries, and Hong Kong dollar has always adopted a fixed "linked exchange rate" linked to the US dollar But this is mainly the approach adopted by some smaller economies in order to ensure the credit of their own currencies, but not by large countries There is no doubt that pegging RMB to the US dollar at a fixed exchange rate can only be a measure of equity With the continuous rise of China's economy, it is imperative for the RMB to get rid of the US dollar On the issue of RMB exchange rate, CDA actually means that the price of China's export commodities is too low At present, the country is ready to reduce the export tax rebate rate This increases the operating cost of export enterprises, which leads to the increase of export commodity prices, thus easing the pressure of RMB appreciation At present, there is a great pressure from CDA to require RMB appreciation in the world The United States, Japan, South Korea, Europe, etc all require RMB appreciation in China Some big financial capitals in the world have begun to exchange RMB on a large scale Some experts point out that QFII is waiting for RMB appreciation when it enters China The world's major funds have visited China frequently recently, and they expect the RMB to appreciate by 15% - 25% in the next 15 months, while Tao Dong, chief Asia economist of Credit Suisse's First Boston (CFSB), said: in three years, the RMB will appreciate to 1 US dollar to 5 yuan Therefore, the purchase of RMB has become an investment behavior in the international financial market At present, CDA has widely used RMB as currency in the surrounding countries and regions of China, and there are tens of billions of RMB in Hong Kong, China alone In the Hong Kong market, the ratio of RMB to Hong Kong dollar is 1:1, which is much higher than the price quoted by the people's Bank of China The Chinese government of CDA has decided that the RMB will not appreciate this year, and is actively studying and changing the current RMB exchange rate policy Let's make a point here: first, we will never engage in the floating exchange rate system in the free market, and resolutely block exchange rate speculation, otherwise it will lead to disastrous consequences for most Chinese enterprises at present; second, we should implement the principle of "controlling the market in a planned and proportionate way, with an annual appreciation of 1% - 3%, and the floating rate of exchange rate within 3% At least 1% appreciation can be considered in 2004 In view of the current excessive price increase, the exchange rate should be increased month by month, and the exchange rate should be increased by 3% against the US dollar by the end of the year, and the floating level of the exchange rate should be increased accordingly Export tax rebate is an international practice to promote exports However, due to the low wage level in China, when the exchange rate is low, it is of great positive significance for China's social development to reduce export tax rebate and correspondingly strengthen social security, especially to greatly improve the level of free medical security and education security Third, special industries such as shipbuilding should keep the current full export tax rebate rate unchanged for a long time Recently, President Hu Jintao pointed out that China implements a "managed floating exchange rate system" At present, the state has issued a new export tax rebate policy According to different industries, the export tax rebate rate of 5% - 17% will be implemented from January 1, 2004 Obviously, this is a very wise decision of the Chinese government Of course, it is necessary to further adjust the export tax rebate rate of different industries to 0-17% at some time in the future, which is an important sign of the healthy development of China's economy In addition, it is necessary to reduce the collection level of value-added tax moderately at some time in the future It is very necessary to reduce the collection level by at least 1-3 percentage points At present, the common view about RMB exchange rate is that we should keep RMB exchange rate stable without appreciation The real question is whether it is necessary for the RMB to follow the depreciation of the US dollar? Is it to maintain the stability of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, or the stability of the value of RMB or the relative stability of the exchange rate of RMB against the currencies of other countries in the world? If this problem is not clear, blindly following the depreciation of the US dollar will inevitably lead to serious economic chaos in China In fact, the appreciation of one country's exchange rate is expressed as the overall promotion of other countries' economic parameters, but for the world market, it is mainly expressed as the promotion of enterprise wage level relative to foreign wage level; while the appreciation of domestic purchase price relative to international purchase price will soon achieve a balance in the open market The promotion of national strength expressed by the effective appreciation of a country's currency is the key to making this kind of currency a "hard currency" in the world market, as well as the key for people all over the world to include this kind of currency in the collection and reserve, and the seigniorage income obtained by this currency issuing country is difficult to estimate The economic efficiency of any society in CDA has its limits of growth Due to the limited growth of land and labor wages, after the land price and wages have reached a very high level, many large companies have to start to seek overseas investment to reduce production costs by obtaining cheap land and labor wages, and maintain their market price competitiveness and high level of market profitability The situation of CDA in China is quite different China's wages and economic efficiency are still at a very low level There is a great room for the growth of wages and economic efficiency of enterprises The quality management and efficiency management of enterprises are closely related to the effective growth of wages China's real products are basically in the middle and low level in the world market Therefore, to maintain the effective growth of wages and the effective improvement of product quality is the key for China to move to the forefront of the world in the 21st century In addition, due to the RMB's rigid devaluation following the US dollar, the basic price of China's market has risen, which has become prominent in the market where steel, soybeans and other imported goods occupy a considerable proportion, and a new round of overall price rise has been launched This will make life more difficult for the low and middle-income people, especially the "proletarians" with lower urban incomes, whose limited savings will be "shrunk", and the long-term lag of wage growth will make their living standards decline in the whole process of socio-economic growth This will make China's already very serious social polarization more acute At present, the proportion of foreign trade in China's economy has reached 60% of GDP, and the proportion of China's endogenous economy is declining The devaluation of RMB with the US dollar will make this situation more serious As a mature large economy, foreign trade accounts for about 20% of the economy, such as the United States and Japan The reality of China's economy is a very unhealthy state, which implies a deep crisis, and national security has been threatened It has become an urgent task to improve the health level of China's economy to promote the endogenous economic growth First of all, we should turn China's endogenous economy into an increase, and make its growth rate exceed that of foreign trade As soon as possible, the contribution of the endogenous economy to the whole national economy should exceed 50%, and the long-term goal should reach 70% Obviously, this will keep China's economy in double-digit growth for a long time Once China's endogenous economy reaches 70% of GDP again, China's economic scale will be equal to that of the United States Due to the RMB's rigid devaluation following the US dollar, CDA has made China's economy empty, making foreign capital take advantage of it and buy China wantonly, which is mainly manifested in three aspects: first, speculative purchase of RMB; second, increasing forward orders; third, acquisition of Chinese enterprises at a low price or direct investment in China, which is an important reason for the current surge of foreign capital in China The low exchange rate has led to the serious loss of China's wealth Cda
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