Looking forward to 2020, ten development trends of Chinese pharmaceutical industry

[pharmaceutical network market analysis] 2019 has passed Under the influence of these medical reform policies, a number of pharmaceutical enterprises withdrew in 2019, and the industry pattern changed greatly Now in 2020, the marginal impact of policy reform has been reduced, and a new chapter of the pharmaceutical industry is expected to open Will the competition in the pharmaceutical market be more intense? What is the development momentum of multinational pharmaceutical enterprises? Is the investment and financing in the field of innovative drugs good? The author will look forward to the policies, regulations, trends, hot spots and other aspects of the pharmaceutical industry in 2020, and list the top ten forecasts of the pharmaceutical industry in China for reference only Forecast 1 - the expansion of volume procurement forces pharmaceutical enterprises to innovate, and the industry is facing a big reshuffle Following the promotion of the policy of volume procurement expansion, on December 29, 2018, the second batch of national organizations started the centralized procurement and use of drugs According to the work arrangement of centralized procurement, on January 17, 2020, the bidding in Shanghai will produce the results of the proposed selection, and patients from all over the country will use the second batch of centralized procurement of selected drugs in April It is believed in the industry that with the purchase volume becoming the normal gradually, the patients will benefit after the high water content of the drug price is squeezed out For pharmaceutical companies, facing this new market environment, they will have to do articles on quality improvement and price reduction to strengthen innovation and research and development At the same time, with the guarantee of sales volume, the successful pharmaceutical companies will reduce their investment in marketing, or stimulate them to devote themselves to the research and development of innovative drugs In general, innovation is the key word for the future development of the pharmaceutical industry, and the whole industry will face a major reshuffle At present, domestic pharmaceutical companies are increasing R & D investment, and the proportion of R & D cost in operating revenue is increasing For example, Hengrui, a leading domestic pharmaceutical company, spent 1.415 billion yuan on R & D in the third quarter of 2019, up 90.96% year on year Forecast II - DRGs new deal will affect the future pattern, simulated operation in 2020 On October 16, 2019, the National Medical Security Bureau officially issued the notice on printing and distributing the technical specifications and grouping schemes of DRG paid country pilot, which contains two important standards, namely, the national medical security DRG grouping and paying technical specifications and the national medical security DRG (chs-drg) grouping scheme Among them, the introduction of "technical specifications" means that the national DRG payment pilot will have unified technical specifications and guidance standards; the introduction of "grouping scheme" means that each pilot city needs to follow the unified grouping operation guidelines given by "grouping scheme" in the implementation process, and then combine with the local actual situation to develop local subdivision DRG grouping (DRGs) According to the industry, according to the promotion logic of the national DRGs pilot work, the simulated operation will start in 2020 and the actual payment will start in the next year In general, with the promotion of DRGs new deal, the future pharmaceutical market pattern will be affected, and the time left for pharmaceutical enterprises to adapt to the new market environment is not long Forecast three - the local innovative medicine enterprises are ready to go, and 2020 will usher in the blockbuster market The industry expects that in 2020, the investment and financing of domestic innovative drugs will still increase compared with 2019 It is estimated that the investment and financing will be 200-210 billion yuan in 2020 In general, the field of innovative drugs has returned to the conventional development path, and has become a stable subdivision field Local innovative drug companies are ready to enter the blockbuster market in 2020 The industry points out that the ten domestic innovative drugs sorted out from the priority review list or to be launched in 2020 are all small molecule drugs, while the domestic large molecule innovative drugs have not made much progress after the full completion of NDA with PD-1 monoclonal antibody Forecast 4: multinational pharmaceutical enterprises are growing rapidly in China with strong development momentum Under the influence of China's new pharmaceutical policy, multinational pharmaceutical enterprises are accelerating their strategic response The industry believes that cost pressure, improvement of promotion ability and marketing efficiency have become the current challenges faced by multinational pharmaceutical enterprises in China, but also contain potential business opportunities At present, multinational pharmaceutical companies in the Chinese market still maintain a high-speed growth trend In addition to accelerating the introduction of their own innovative drugs into China, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb and other multinational pharmaceutical enterprises participate in volume purchasing through price reduction, and multinational pharmaceutical enterprises accelerate to enter the medical insurance access negotiations Of the 52 new Western medicines winning the new medical insurance catalog, 41 are from multinational pharmaceutical giants such as Novartis and Pfizer, accounting for nearly 80% In addition, global pharmaceutical companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Berlin Ingelheim and AstraZeneca are aiming at China's grassroots market as an important market for future development In general, the development momentum of multinational pharmaceutical enterprises is still strong, or new competition with local pharmaceutical enterprises Forecast 5 - industrial capital enters the field of pharmaceutical innovation in an all-round way Since 2014, the amount of financing in the field of pharmaceutical research and development in China has increased rapidly, especially in 2018 The industry believes that in 2020, industrial capital will enter the field of pharmaceutical innovation in an all-round way, forcing more traditional pharmaceutical enterprises to increase the layout of the field of pharmaceutical innovation At the third China Pharmaceutical Innovation and investment conference held in September 2019, Martin dewurst, head of McKinsey's global pharmaceutical and medical business, said that the support of venture capital for biomedical innovation is firm It is predicted that in the next 10-15 years, many Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises may be among the Fortune 500, or there will be 16 unicorns It is predicted that the Chinese medicine industry will usher in the turning point of development from the sixth to 2020 At present, with the aggravation of aging and the rapid growth of chronic diseases, the Chinese medicine industry is moving forward in the direction of high-quality development, and the new important opportunity period has arrived The industry believes that the Chinese medicine industry will usher in the turning point of development in 2020 On the one hand, the traditional Chinese medicine industry is facing higher requirements of modern development In the process of preparation, standardized production, comprehensive supervision and stable product quality are the development trend of modernization of traditional Chinese medicine Formula granule enterprises need to strictly produce according to the standards, while maintaining the stability of product quality On the other hand, in recent years, with the continuous maturity of the technology of Chinese herbal pieces and Chinese herbal formula granules, as well as the support of a series of favorable policies, there are good opportunities for growth Forecast 7: MAH integrates resource allocation and promotes industrial upgrading MAH system separates listing license and production license, allowing the holders of drug listing license documents to produce drugs by themselves or entrust other enterprises to produce drugs At present, China has carried out MAH system pilot for nearly 4 years, and has made positive achievements in encouraging new drug development, optimizing resource allocation, promoting industrial upgrading, etc According to the industry, the MAH system pilot has greatly activated the innovation vitality of enterprises, and will be conducive to the integration of resource allocation, promote the further upgrading of the industry, and bring many market opportunities to pharmaceutical enterprises with strong manufacturing and quality control capabilities Forecast 8 - through financial verification, 2020 or compliance challenge again "Financial problems" of pharmaceutical companies have always been the focus of regulatory attention Behind the frequent financial events of listed pharmaceutical companies, it shows that there are common problems in the industry, such as water injection of financial data, virtual increase of drug price income, etc In June 2019, China carried out the inspection of accounting information quality of the pharmaceutical industry in 2019, and carried out a penetrating financial inspection on 77 pharmaceutical enterprises, including the authenticity of expenses, costs and incomes The industry believes that the "penetration" audit reflects that the compliance system of pharmaceutical companies is facing challenges again and is expected to be more difficult in 2020 In this context, the marketing of pharmaceutical enterprises should be constantly upgraded, and also need to transform the layout Forecast 9: changes of pharmaceutical o2o, 2020 reshuffle intensifies pharmaceutical o2o belongs to a low-frequency but just needed industry, which solves three pain points of the original B2C mode in the pharmaceutical industry: timeliness pain point, regulatory pain point and internal channel conflict pain point At present, pharmaceutical o2o has a huge market The industry believes that with the rise of new businesses in drugstores, the retail market pattern of drugstores will also change in the future Drugstores and drug supply will be restructured Pharmaceutical o2o is expected to help drugstores win the market of 600 billion yuan This will also attract more enterprises to actively explore At the same time, the pharmaceutical o2o market is also facing changes It is understood that many platforms failed to transform themselves into a service provider role, and fell one after another In addition, another important issue in the development of pharmaceutical o2o is that drug delivery belongs to low-frequency consumption and takes a long time The industry believes that in 2020, the shuffling of pharmaceutical o2o will be intensified, and it will become an important development direction to jump out of the mode of pure delivery of pharmaceutical o2o and build a complete and closed industrial chain Forecast 10: the development of science and technology innovation board is gradually mature and entering a stable development state The domestic market has become a good choice for enterprises to be listed The industry believes that Hong Kong stock and science and technology innovation board have their own advantages in listing, and it is expected that enterprises will still choose according to their own needs in 2020 As a hot sector in 2019, science and Technology Innovation Board will gradually enter a stable development state in 2020 after the end of the initial listing boom.