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On Monday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum operated in shocks, with a maximum of 19,200 yuan / ton, a minimum of 18,575 yuan / ton, and a close of 18,900 yuan, up 0.
24% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fell in shock, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2557 / ton, up 0.
08%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of November 8, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
006 million tons, down 06,000 tons from last Thursday (November 4), and 641,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(2) The U.
S.
House of Representatives passed a $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill
.
(3) According to new data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2021, China exported 47.
95 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 14.
49%; From January to October, the cumulative export was 454.
70 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.
3%.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18840-18880 yuan / ton, the average price was 18860 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder is actively under pressure on the shipment price, and the next receiver purchases at the low, prepares the goods on demand, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 147792 tons, daily increase of 4377 tons; LME aluminum stocks 1000375 tons, down 3,675 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2112 contract held 126556 lots, minus 8580 lots per day, short positions 129046 lots, daily reduction of 12076 lots, net short positions of 2490 lots, daily minus 2617 lots, long and short and net short both reduced
.
Market research and judgment: under the influence of the dual control policy, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be limited, the future market ushered in the heating season and the dry period in the southwest region, electrolytic aluminum supply or continued to be weak, but some power relief areas have a certain probability of resuming production, but it is difficult to release
on a large scale in the short term.
On the demand side, low aluminum prices drive market replenishment demand, electrolytic aluminum out of the warehouse slightly increased, inventory from accumulation to storage, short-term consumption is expected to usher in a marginal recovery, need to be vigilant against the seasonal weakening of market demand
.
Finally, the US House of Representatives passed the $1.
2 trillion infrastructure bill and the decline in coal prices slowed down, and the current price aluminum plant has lost money, and the cost support role has appeared, which has brought a certain boost
to the current Shanghai aluminum.
Short-term aluminum prices or wide fluctuations are dominant
.
