Macro atmosphere still prefers PVC trend is still strong

This week, the overall operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry continued to increase, and some early shutdown and load reduction enterprises started work
.
The data shows that the overall starting load rate of PVC this week was 75.
96%, an increase of 2.
65 percentage points from the previous month, a high level in the past two months; of which the calcium carbide PVC starting load rate was 74.
47%, an increase of 1.
70 percentage points from the previous month; the ethylene PVC starting load rate was 81.
25%, an increase of 6.
02 percentage points
from the previous month.
In terms of new production capacity, the supply pressure in the first quarter of 2023 is greater, Shandong Xinfa and Guangxi Huayi are being debugged recently, Julong Chemical still has the possibility of raising the burden, and there is still room
for improvement in the overall start.

In terms of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide in January is expected to fluctuate limited, because the current PVC single product loss of calcium carbide production enterprises is still serious, and there is a downward expectation in the PVC market price in January, in the short term, calcium carbide PVC production enterprises are difficult to reverse the current single product loss situation, and the cost pressure of PVC production enterprises in January will be more obvious
.
In addition, the profitability of caustic soda products in December decreased compared with November, and the overall profitability of subsequent chlor-alkali enterprises may be difficult to improve significantly
.

At present, the domestic supply of PVC in January is expected to increase, while the current order situation of downstream products enterprises is not good, the acceptance of high spot prices is low, January demand will enter the off-season, the overall demand may appear to weaken significantly, PVC supply and demand fundamentals or have a bearish impact
.
It is expected that the ex-factory price of PVC in January will not have a significant upward space, and the cost pressure of calcium carbide PVC manufacturers may still be obvious
.

In addition, with the overall improvement of spot shipments, it is expected that the inventory of PVC manufacturers will decline in early January, but with the Spring Festival holiday of downstream product enterprises and midstream traders, the efficiency of picking up goods is expected to decrease, and the inventory of production enterprises may increase
accordingly.

In terms of social inventory, with the gradual warehousing of in-transit sources and sources to be unloaded, the recent accumulation process of social inventory may be accelerated, but it should be noted that some production enterprises currently have more export orders to be delivered, and if export orders are delivered centrally in January, it will slow down the accumulation process of social inventory
.

On the whole, it is expected that the cost pressure of PVC production enterprises will continue in January, but the recent export orders of some production enterprises are still good, and some production enterprises have completed a larger part of the pre-sale of goods during the Spring Festival, or will support the market mentality, it is expected that the overall production enterprise sales pressure in January is not large, and some production enterprises with poor delivery may face phased inventory pressure
.

On the whole, although the margin of supply and demand is still weakening, the PVC policy is expected to continue to make efforts and export increments still dominate the market trend
.
Under the macro atmosphere still preferred and the expectation of low-price replenishment, the trend of PVC is still strong
.