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Shanghai copper ran weakly on Wednesday, the intraday market was pessimistic, the main monthly 2211 contract opened at 62460 yuan / ton, and the daily close was 62120 yuan / ton, down 710 yuan / ton, down 1.
13%.
Macro sentiment is uncertain, internal and external copper inventories have increased continuously, suppressing the trend of copper prices, and spot premiums have fallen, making prices under short-term pressure, and Shanghai copper continued to close lower
during the day.
In terms of spot, on October 19, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63170-63210 yuan / ton, down 560 yuan / ton; Premiums 780-liters 820, down 300 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the holders have mainly shipped, the downstream enterprises mainly purchase just demand, bargain hunting, intraday trading narrowing, and the transaction situation is weak
.
In terms of inventories, as of October 19, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 4,825 tons, or 3.
35%, to 139,000 tons; As of October 19, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period was 70,547 tons, down 6,967 tons
from the previous day.
London copper inventories fell within the day, but overall inventories still hovered at relatively high levels in recent months, and Shanghai copper warehouse receipts also retreated, also at recent highs
.
On the supply side, the supply of copper concentrate is abundant, and domestic electrolytic copper production has steadily increased
.
With the accumulation of domestic and foreign inventories, the squeeze water market has eased
.
However, given the limited supply increment under the baseline assumption, spot stocks may remain tight in November, and global copper inventories remain at historically low levels
.
In terms of demand, terminal demand has not improved, although there is a boost from the new energy industry and photovoltaics and infrastructure, but the weakness of real estate continues to drag down copper consumption, and the peak season is about to come to an end, the overall market transaction is relatively weak, and the recovery of demand is less than expected
.
On the whole, the dollar has fallen, the stock market has improved, and the pressure on non-ferrous metals has weakened, but the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes during the year and the expectation of further sharp interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world have suppressed copper prices
.
At the same time, the inventory of the domestic and foreign copper markets has increased, which has put certain pressure
on the trend of copper prices.
Copper prices continued to weaken downward trend, and spot premiums fell, putting short-term prices under pressure
.
In addition, the silver peak season is coming to an end, terminal demand has not improved, the market trading is general, the demand recovery is less than expected, and the overall spot trading is weak to win
.
Therefore, the macro bearish of the Fed's interest rate hike is still there, domestic and foreign inventories have soared, and the market is under pressure
.
Therefore, Shanghai copper continued its decline during the day, focusing on the 61500-63500 price support line
.
