Macro sentiment is long and short intertwined, and the aluminum market continues to be strong

Macro: The dust of the US election has basically settled, Biden's election is almost a foregone conclusion, the market has good expectations for it in anti-epidemic, infrastructure investment and trade cooperation, analysts believe that the downward trend of Biden's election of the US dollar index will continue
in the future.
The Pfizer new crown vaccine is now good news, the company said that the vaccine has proved 90% effective, but the global epidemic is still continuing, and the actual release of the vaccine on the market still takes time, macro sentiment is mixed
.

On the supply side: China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October increased by 6.
8% year-on-year to 2.
72 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics; Total production from January to October was 27.
71 million mt, up 4.
4%
y/y.
Alumina production in October was 6.
020 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.
5%, the average daily output was 194,000 tons, an increase of 0.
9% month-on-month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 57.
163 million tons, an increase of 19.
1%
year-on-year.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.

Supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in November, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.

Cost side: The cost of alumina was slightly lowered to 12,899 yuan on Friday, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum production is still at a high level
.
In terms of water discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot water is adjusted to 10 yuan / ton
.
Lun aluminum premium narrowed to a discount of $19.
75; inventory: LME stocks accumulated slightly by 875 tons to 1.
4201 million tons yesterday, and the previous inventory decreased by 1,630 tons last week to 231,700 tons, and the social bank continued to decrease by 14,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 9 to 627,000 tons, and the inventory did not rise
for eight consecutive periods.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory destocking continues, which has formed a certain support
for the price.

In terms of spot, as the center of gravity of the aluminum plate continues to rise, the recent rise in spot aluminum prices is obvious, and the downstream is cautious.

On the demand side, China's import and export data in September performed strongly, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and production profits are still in a high position from a historical perspective
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in November further releases a certain suppression of the price of electrolytic aluminum, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.