Macro uncertainty remains, and copper trends are weak

Last week, London copper fluctuated to the downside
.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 6765.
5 US dollars / ton, down 33.
5 US dollars / ton per day; The average price last week was 6891 US dollars / ton, down 1.
82%
from the previous month.

The profits of China's industrial enterprises have rebounded quarter by quarter, production demand has gradually recovered, and the relationship between supply and demand has continued to improve
.
The continued recovery of the global economy under the epidemic is doubtful, the worsening of the epidemic in Europe and the re-imposition of lockdowns have stimulated safe-haven demand, while the lack of progress in the negotiation of the US fiscal stimulus agreement, the recovery of the US dollar index and the continued weakness of oil prices have dragged down commodity markets
.

In terms of the market, in the week of October 30, domestic spot copper prices were weak and volatile
.
The average price of copper in Yangtze River nonferrous metal net 1# was 51678 yuan / ton, down 126 yuan / ton per day, and down 1.
21% on the weekly line; The average price of the previous week was 51966 yuan / ton, down 288 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, down 0.
55%
from the previous week.

In terms of inventory, Shanghai copper stocks continued to fall last week, falling by 15,849 tons to 139657 tons, a decrease of 10.
19%.

London copper stocks continued to decline last week, with a cumulative decrease of 9,000 metric tons to 171,300 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.
99%.

Copper mine supply is gradually recovering, smelters are actively stocked, and domestic refined copper production will gradually increase; Recently, the demand in the domestic end market has been flat, and the core consumption performance is not good, but imported copper continues to flow in large quantities, but it is not shown in inventory; The current worsening epidemic in Europe has caused demand concerns, and copper prices are under pressure
.

In terms of news, Chile's Candelaria copper miners will decide to extend the strike, but the mine only produced about 110,000 tons a year last year, which has a relatively limited
impact on supply.
The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) expects global refined copper production to grow by about 1.
5% this year, secondary refined copper production (using scrap) is expected to decline by 5.
5%, while refined copper demand is expected to remain unchanged, with an estimated copper supply gap of around 50,000 tonnes
this year.

China's economic operation continues to recover steadily, and it is expected to continue to expand effective investment
such as new infrastructure.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the annual automobile production and sales will decline by about 4%, and the performance in the second and third quarters will be better than last year, and the fourth quarter will also be good according to this trend; There is still the possibility of rushing power grid investment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the delivery of orders from the State Grid in November; Recently, domestic and foreign inventories have continued to decline, providing bottom support, but macro uncertainty is still available, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate next
week.