Malaysia palm oil price will fall

Introduction: According to overseas media reports, although the latest Malaysian report on palm oil production in July shows good results, it has little incentive effect on the trend of palm oil futures Market participants predict that under the pressure of huge open positions, the original palm oil futures price in three months is expected to fall within this month, and test the key support level of rm1190 per metric ton According to figures from the Malaysian derivatives exchange, as of the 13th of this month, there were 11581 open positions in the original brown oil futures market in three months, an increase of 1166 or 11.19% compared with 10415 on July 29th, indicating that speculators continued to enter the market at the level of 1200 ringgit per metric ton of brown oil to look forward to selling and arbitraging when the good news came When the official figures showed that the inventory of palm oil in July was reduced to less than one million metric tons at noon on the 13th, the original palm oil futures market could not rise to fall Today's trend, though rising, was not fierce, indicating that the positive factors had been reflected in the market in advance Market participants said that in fact, the number of open positions has increased by 2430 or 26.55% in less than one month, from 9151 on July 16 to 11581 on August 13, while the price of crude palm oil futures has gradually climbed to 1240 ringgit from 1100 ringgit per metric ton at that time, and was once close to the level of 1300 ringgit This means that after the latest good news fails to drive the original brown oil futures to break through the 1300 ringgit mark, the market will face more and more selling pressure This is mainly due to the huge open position contracts in the current market, which were originally expected to be sold and arbitraged in the rising tide However, such expectations have obviously fallen At present, the market is mainly dominated by retail investors, whose holding capacity is weak Therefore, in the next one or two weeks, the market will see more selling pressure Because these retail investors see no profit, they will choose to cut their positions and exit, so as to avoid that when the futures term approaches, the contract is more difficult to get rid of Market participants predict that in case of such a situation, it is expected that investment institutions, such as planting companies, will also sell along with it, making the market selling pressure heavier It is expected that the price of crude palm oil futures per metric ton in three months this month will test the key support of rm1190 If this level cannot be maintained, the price will fall back to the level of rm1100 to consolidate Another brown oil source said that although the long-term outlook for the brown oil industry is still promising, the positive news for the industry in the short term has clearly been exhausted, because the production of brown oil in August and September is likely to increase by 10%, putting the inventory under pressure Therefore, he believes that when the palm oil industry in November due to the arrival of the festival and new positive factors, the original palm oil futures prices in these months need a period of consolidation (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: