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Affected by the drop in live pig prices, many listed pig companies had poor operations in the first half of the year, and their semi-annual results were generally at a loss
With rising costs and falling pig prices, how can big pig farmers get out of the dilemma of loss in the second half of the year? Judging from the current production capacity of major pig companies, there is still a gap between the completion of the slaughter target
The high profit stage is over
Last year, the price of pork, which had been soaring all the way, has been declining since March of this year, and has been falling all the way since May
Chen Xiaoyu, an analyst for the pig industry chain of the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told a reporter from China Business Daily: "The overall pig price in the first half of the year fell by 21.
According to the statistics of designated slaughter enterprises by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, slaughter enterprises above designated size slaughtered 22 million heads in June, a year-on-year increase of 66%
Many pig companies have issued forecasts of performance decline
In response to the new situation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has continuously issued warning messages to remind pig farmers to avoid speculative slaughter and panic slaughter, speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows, and cooperate with the National Development and Reform Commission to issue a first-level warning of excessively falling pig and grain price ratios, and points out 33,000 tons of pork were purchased and stored in two batches
According to the June sales briefings of major pig companies, the average sales price of live pigs is far below the cost line
Gao Yang, a pig analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told a reporter from China Business Daily: "According to the survey, the pessimism among industry insiders was generally strong in the first half of the year.
The industry generally believes that in the second half of the year, the highest price of live pigs may not exceed RMB 20/kg
The task of slaughter in the second half of the year is arduous
"Volume increase and price reduction" and "quantity and price double reduction" make major pig companies worry
For major pig companies, lower average sales prices mean that pig farming profits have shrunk
Although pig farming has made a loss, the sales of major pig companies in the first half of the year are far from reaching the target, and the task in the second half of the year is still arduous
Due to the current low prices of live pigs, major pig companies have also slowed down their slaughter rates
In addition, it is worth noting that since June 22, the main hog futures contract has stopped falling and stabilized, with a rebound of about 11% during this period.
Pig enterprises will not stop heavy volume
Judging from the slaughtering tasks in the second half of the year, major pig companies will not stop increasing their volumes due to the drop in pig prices
Li Jinghui, deputy secretary-general of the China Animal Husbandry Association, told a reporter from China Business Daily that high-quality companies will continue to make profits under the balance of supply and demand
.
For example, if the industry's average cost is 10 yuan/kg, companies that control the cost at 9.
5 yuan/kg will be profitable, and those with a cost of 11 yuan/kg will reduce costs or be eliminated according to market conditions
.
According to market regulation, the pig breeding industry will have a benign and reasonable profit margin
.
In order to reduce the cost of breeding, the listed pig companies have tried their best
.
Muyuan said the company will continue to strengthen cost control
.
In the first quarter of this year, the complete cost of pig farming for Muyuan was around RMB 16/kg.
Starting from April, the cost of breeding pigs for Muyuan has dropped
.
When talking about how to control breeding costs, Muyuan said that the company’s air filtration smart pig house has improved the air quality inside the pig house and accelerated the growth of live pigs
.
At present, the growth rate of the pig herd has increased after the use of air filtration smart pig houses.
It is believed that in the future, as the company's management level improves and the large-scale promotion and application of intelligent equipment, the company's costs will further drop
.
It is hoped that in the fourth quarter of this year, the cost target of 14 yuan/kg can be reached in stages
.
The relevant person in charge of the New Hope Group also told the China Business Daily that the link with the biggest difference in efficiency and cost is the pig breeding link
.
The self-propagating and self-supporting model has a slight advantage over the "company + farmer" model in terms of cost reduction, biosafety prevention and control, and farm hardware facilities
.
At present, "company + farmer" accounts for a relatively high proportion of the company's slaughter structure.
In the future, while continuing to develop the "company + farmer" commercial pig breeding model, it will gradually increase investment in the self-reproduction and self-raising model
.
In order to reduce costs, Zhengbang Technology eliminated 350,000 low-efficiency breeding sows in the first quarter and eliminated about 400,000 sows with relatively poor performance in the first half of this year
.
The person in charge of Zhengbang Technology said that the elimination of poor performance sows is to update a batch of better performance breeding pigs, which can reduce costs and increase future production capacity
.
"The elimination of inefficient sows has reduced costs for the company.
The cost of piglets has dropped from RMB 950/head in the fourth quarter of 2020 to RMB 600/head at present, a decrease of 37%
.
At the same time, the company expects that under normal production conditions In the future, the cost of piglets will reach 300-400 yuan/head
.
"
Regarding the future trend of the live pig market, Xin Guochang said that consumption will increase in the second half of the year, but from the perspective of production growth inertia, pork supply will also increase
.
Based on the analysis of two factors, the pork market may maintain an overall balance of supply and demand in the future, and the balance will continue for a period of time
.
As consumption becomes more prosperous, pig farming may return to normal profit levels
.
How to fight the "protracted war" in the market when the price of pigs continues to fall
extend>>>
Since March of this year, the price of live pigs has fallen for five consecutive months.
In June, many farmers have suffered losses
.
"If this situation continues, it will not be conducive to the long-term stable development of the industry, nor to the long-term stable production and supply of pork
.
" Xin Guochang, a secondary inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that fluctuations in live pig prices are part of the market's allocation of resources.
This kind of performance, but the big ups and downs will have a certain impact on the development of the industry, the lives of the people, and the stability of prices
.
Facing the new development situation, how to promote the high-quality development of the market? It is worth noting that smart breeding is becoming a new outlet in the pig breeding market
.
At present, some pig raising companies are exploring integrated models such as building pig raising
.
If this integrated model from pig breeding to meat supply can be successfully explored, then the pig market will be able to truly transform from "regulating pigs" to "regulating meat"
.
This trend may lead aquaculture companies to transform and develop into a large-scale aquaculture model
.
The "Opinions on Stabilizing Pig Production and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading" issued by the State Council stated that the domestic pig breeding scale rate will reach about 58% by 2022, and it is predicted that by 2025, the domestic pig breeding scale rate will reach more than 65%
.
"Relying on smart breeding technology, large and medium-sized breeding companies can greatly reduce the cost of artificial breeding
.
" said Zhang Yi, a veteran of pig breeding.
Leading breeding companies such as Wen's Group have deployed intelligent breeding, and Internet top platforms such as NetEase and Jingdong have entered the game.
, Jingdong Agriculture and Animal Husbandry also released an intelligent breeding solution
.
Xue Yongqin, vice president of Yongcheng Group, said that now the pig raising market is in a special period, and pig farmers must clearly understand that no matter how high or low the market is, they must be environmentally friendly and take the ecological cycle of resource utilization.
The size of the pig farm should not be too large.
Through a scientific and effective recycling method, waste is turned into treasure
.
When selecting breeding pigs, pay attention to the performance of breeding pigs, and promptly eliminate pigs that are older and not suitable for breeding
.
Only by updating breeding pigs and upgrading pig farm technology in a planned way can we calmly deal with pig prices in different periods
.
Xin Guochang also reminded the majority of pig companies, "The high-profit stage is over, don't bet on the market anymore, pay more attention to the official warning information of the agricultural and rural departments, speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows, and do a good job of saving costs and increasing efficiency
.
Blindly press the hurdles, stop arranging production with a speculative mentality, get out the hurdles in an orderly manner, and do a long-term cost-saving and efficiency-increasing work
.
"
Local governments are also taking various measures to stabilize the market
.
Sichuan recently added new measures on the basis of the "Nine Pigs" and "New Eights" that have already been issued, and formulated the "Ten Measures for Stabilizing Live Pig Production in Sichuan Province"
.
"This round of abnormal pig prices continues to fall due to the superposition of multiple factors, not simply'too many pigs
.
'" According to Li Chunhua, chief livestock pastor of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of pigs for slaughter and market consumption capacity in Sichuan has not yet been reached .
Back to the level of normal years, the production of live pigs has not yet come to "Mingjin Receiving Soldiers".
The new "Pig Ten Articles" introduced this time are aimed at stabilizing farmers' confidence, stabilizing the basic production capacity of pigs, and maintaining long-term stability of pig production.
Healthy development
.
"All localities must rationally plan and deploy pig farms based on target tasks, consumption needs, and land carrying capacity.
They must develop or blindly develop.
It is necessary to gradually allow pig production to reach a stable operation level
.
" Li Chunhua said
.
(Lin Xuanmo)