Market confidence is insufficient, and Shanghai aluminum may continue to be under pressure in the short term

The current main line of market trading is still pessimistic expectations
for demand.
On the one hand, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow down, while most major economies led by the United States adopt tight monetary policy, and it is difficult to provide a loose economic growth environment in the macro aspect; On the other hand, many places in China have been hit by the epidemic, and the domestic economy has been under short-term pressure
under the background of unwavering adherence to the general policy of "dynamic zero".

From a fundamental point of view, micro data indicate that the demand for the peak season of the aluminum market is far less than expected
.
Last week, the operating rate of aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises fell by 7.
5 percentage points month-on-month to 57.
3%, although affected by the May Day holiday, it still showed the characteristics
of anti-seasonal downturn compared with the same period of 20/21.

In terms of inventory, before the festival to the warehouse short-lived, after the holiday to accumulate again, although the current inventory level is at a low level in recent years, but the supply side resumed production steady progress, and the industry still has a certain profit margin, low inventory support is limited, it is recommended to pay attention to the cost support
around 19,000.