Market demand is performing well, and low inventories still support aluminum prices

Macro: The US vaccine was approved and began to be administered this week, but the cumulative number of new crown deaths has exceeded 300,000, and London, the United Kingdom may open the highest alert level of the epidemic, and the market sentiment has fallen
in recent days due to concerns about the continued spread of the epidemic.

Supply side: supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in December, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

Stocks: LME stocks edged down by 275 tonnes to 1,357,700 tonnes yesterday, compared with 288 tonnes to 214,600 tonnes last week, and warehouse receipts fell 1,127 tonnes to 79,420 tonnes
.
According to the data on December 14, the social stock continued to accumulate 08,000 tons, compared with the statistics on December 10, at 604,000 tons
.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price
.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level of 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profits have risen slightly, from a historical point of view, production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.