On Wednesday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum was adjusted to the highest of 15490 yuan / ton, the lowest of 15275 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 15400 yuan / ton, up 0.
20% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum continued to rise slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2051.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
Market focus: (1) After contracting 4.
3% in 2020, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.
0% this year, 0.
2 percentage points lower than its previous forecast, although China's economy is expected to grow by 7.
9%, up 1 percentage point
from Hedge, the World Bank said.
Spot analysis: On January 6, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15670-15710 yuan / ton, and the average price was 15690 yuan / ton, flat
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the enthusiasm of cargo holders has declined, there is no obvious change in supply and demand, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction activity is average
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 64,778 tons on Wednesday, unchanged; On January 5, LME aluminum inventory was 1,324,500 tons, a daily decrease of 16,025 tons, and a drop of 8 consecutive days
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2102 contract were 63182 lots, minus 2825 lots per day, short positions were 79284 lots, daily minus 251 lots, net short positions were 16102 lots, daily increase of 2574 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2102 shock adjustment
on January 6.
The risk of a worsening global pandemic heading into winter has increased, and the World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecasts, weighing on market risk sentiment; However, the dollar index continued to be weak
in anticipation of the US maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
The high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and put long-term pressure
on aluminum prices.
The polluted weather in the north has caused some aluminum companies to stop production and limit production, and downstream demand has weakened, but aluminum prices have recently fallen to a low level, market procurement has picked up, coupled with the continuous inflow of overseas supplies, the inventory of the two cities continues to deteriorate, supporting the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position greatly, and the low golden cross of the daily KDJ is expected to stabilize in
the short term.