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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > Market reaction to "unexpected" appreciation

    Market reaction to "unexpected" appreciation

    • Last Update: 2008-11-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Introduction: at 19 p.m yesterday, the people's Bank of China issued a notice to improve the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, which has taken a substantial step forward What kind of impact will this change have on China's economy and what kind of changes will take place in China's commodity market As for the impact of the exchange rate adjustment on the recent commodity market, Ji mins, a researcher at Shenzhen Bohua information company, believes that a small appreciation of RMB is bad for the futures market Because many kinds of futures such as copper, aluminum, soybean, rubber and fuel oil are imported net, the price of imported commodities is relatively low after the appreciation of RMB, which brings certain pressure on the spot and futures prices Taking copper as an example, according to the exchange rate of 8.2763, the CIF Cost of copper is 37376 yuan, while according to the new exchange rate, the price is 36627 yuan, with a price difference of 749 yuan per ton Zhu bin, of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, said that due to the adjustment of soybeans in the previous two days, it is estimated that the impact on soybeans is relatively small, while copper may be greatly affected, short-term negative Jin Xuejun, deputy general manager of Shanghai in the medium term, believes that the 2% appreciation has limited impact on the market itself The price of domestic copper and Luntong is more than 2000 yuan upside down, which has covered the impact of RMB appreciation Therefore, the price of copper may not fall sharply Both bulls and bears say that copper prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand No matter what the market deduces in the near future, after this news is digested, the market will still return to the judgment of fundamentals According to Zhu bin, the reform of the exchange rate mechanism has opened the prelude to the reform of RMB The most important influence is to make people's expectation of exchange rate change, from not considering the exchange rate to paying attention to its possible changes Cao Sheng, deputy general manager of Jingyi futures, believes that after the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar and the floating exchange rate with reference to a basket of currencies, the futures market should first pay attention to the relative trend of a basket of currencies, focusing on the US dollar index The change of US dollar index reflects the price comparison between us dollar and a basket of currencies such as euro, yen and pound At present, the situation of the US dollar is still optimistic The three factors affecting the US dollar, such as the asset income gap between the US dollar and the euro, the interest gap between the US dollar and the euro, and the "double deficit" deficit of the US, have been favorable to the US dollar since the third quarter of this year Therefore, the current appreciation of the RMB will not lead to the continued depreciation of the US dollar Hu Yuyue, Professor of Beijing University of industry and commerce, believes that the interest rate adjustment in the second half of last year and the exchange rate adjustment this time point to very obvious market orientation, which opens a rich imagination space for the development of financial futures market Marketization is an unswerving direction, but it also brings risks Therefore, we should choose the right time to launch financial futures, which is conducive to discovering prices and avoiding risks for investors Huang Jiefu, President of Qize company, proposed that after the introduction of floating exchange rate, Chinese enterprises will face new exchange rate risks, and the state should timely launch financial derivatives transactions, such as swap transactions, interest rate futures, etc He said that only by improving the exchange rate hedging mechanism can import and export enterprises be provided with buffers so that enterprises can more flexibly cope with various exchange rate changes.
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