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Recently, macro risk events have increased, and the market atmosphere has fluctuated sharply, which has a greater
impact on the trend of metals.
In terms of supply and demand, China has entered the "gold nine silver ten", but the downstream of metals generally has not yet shown obvious peak season characteristics, among which Shanghai copper inventories have rebounded significantly, and the trend is obviously lower than that of the external market
.
In terms of domestic demand, home appliances, automobiles and other industries are still in the stage of continuing to repair, and the demand for cables still has room
for improvement.
The cable companies surveyed generally reflected that the orders in the second quarter were very good, and the orders in the third quarter turned weak, especially in August, the month-on-month decline was relatively obvious, according to the current stage of order extrapolation, enterprises generally believe that the peak season in September and October is more likely to be not busy
.
In terms of external demand, this year due to the impact of the epidemic and trade frictions, cable exports decline is very obvious, mainly affected by Europe and the United States and other countries and regions, as the overseas epidemic is gradually controlled, and stimulus policies gradually take effect, overseas orders are expected to improve, but trade frictions are still uncertain factors
.
On the supply side, Peru's main export copper, has actually returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, mainly reflected in the demand for electricity from the country's large mining companies
.
Jaime Gálvez, Peru's undersecretary for mining at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, said: "The electricity consumption of large mining companies is a very good indicator
of production.
While electricity consumption fell 4.
4% year-on-year in August, electricity consumption from copper mines fell by only 0.
4%.
It can be said that mining production has reached pre-pandemic levels
.
Based on the above situation, because the main force of domestic demand lies in cables, downstream docking power grid investment, at this stage, the peak season from September to October is not strong, to a certain extent, will limit the next domestic destocking, but home appliances, automobiles, electronics and other civil copper demand areas still have room
for strength.
Foreign demand has recovered with the supply control of the epidemic, but copper supply has gradually recovered, restraining the upside
.
Short-term copper prices may continue to show a wide range of volatility
.
