Market sentiment is gradually heating up, and Shanghai Aluminum expects short-term stability and volatility

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
jobless claims data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, and the last week's data may climb to 3.
5 million after seasonal adjustment.

(2) The Aluar Port Madeleine aluminium smelter will sit idle for 50% of its capacity after a production cut this month, with a total capacity of 460,000 tons
.
Rio Tinto's Tiwai Point aluminium smelter closes its No.
4 electrolytic aluminium production line, with an annual capacity of approximately 31,000 tonnes
.
(3) Domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks increased by 09,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.
676 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On April 2, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 11280-11320 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11300 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton
per day.
Traders traded in the morning, because the tax reduction is expected to be in the front, the market sentiment gradually warmed up, the later receivers gradually increased, the willingness of the holders to ship converged, the market began to show a situation of less and more, the downstream intraday on-demand stocking, some traders feedback due to the aluminum price fell to the downstream psychological low price, the intraday receipt volume increased significantly compared with the previous two days
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 302363 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 2,840 tons; On April 1, LME aluminum stocks were 1,164,200 tons, an increase of 15,450 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 88388 lots, minus 171 lots per day, short positions were 100907 lots, 216 lots per day, net short positions were 12519 lots, 45 lots per day, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

The global epidemic continues to spread, among which the number of confirmed cases in the United States is still soaring, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States is expected to be pessimistic in the week; The epidemic has led to an increase in the shutdown of overseas enterprises, the downstream demand outlook is worrying, and the inventory of Shanghai and Lun has increased in recent days; At the same time, domestic alumina plants have resumed work one after another, and the price decline has weakened the cost support, and the pressure on aluminum prices is greater
.
However, the monetary easing policy of global central banks continues to be introduced, and further easing is expected in the future; At the same time, the current aluminum price fell below the cost line, and refiners reduced production and storage expectations, which supported aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, traders traded reasonably in the morning, as the expectation of tax cuts was ahead, market sentiment gradually heated up, and downstream intraday on-demand stocking was the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum is long and the lower shadow, focusing on the support of the 11200 position, and it is expected to stabilize and fluctuate
in the short term.