Market sentiment is moving cautiously again The Shanghai copper market continues to decline

On the macro front, a series of better-than-expected announcements from the United States, such as the final PMI value of the services industry and the number of factory orders, coupled with the hawkish attitude of Fed officials to the market in recent days, have made the dollar recover
for two consecutive days.
In addition, yesterday's surge in U.
S.
crude oil inventories and imports hit a two-year high, U.
S.
oil fell to $90, but natural gas prices soared 10%.

At present, energy problems still plague countries
such as Europe and the United States from time to time.

On the supply side of the mine, according to Mysteel, Codelco gradually resumed construction of a number of projects at the beginning of the week, after being suspended
due to safety incidents.
MMG withdrew its original Las Bambas' 2022 production guidance and will be re-evaluated as operations were suspended for more than 50 days in the second quarter due to protest road jams, and community negotiations are still ongoing, but shipments are normal
.
Glencore once again lowered its 2022 copper production target by 50,000 tons, mainly due to the epidemic and geological impacts
.
In general, although there are still interference factors in overseas mine supply, combined with the still high copper concentrate port inventory, it is expected that mine supply will remain relatively abundant this week, and TC prices may continue to recover
slightly as overseas interference factors gradually recede.

In terms of consumption, domestic policies continue to improve, home appliances to the countryside, new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy time extension, accelerate the construction of charging facilities and other measures are accelerating the recovery of market consumption, the good policy still boosts the market, but because the third quarter is the off-season for copper demand, so the real demand recovery may need to wait until the turn of
the third and fourth quarters.
On the other hand, the continuous interest rate hikes of European and American central banks make it difficult for the market to be optimistic about the future demand outlook, so it is difficult to form a very effective support
for prices in terms of overall demand at present.

In terms of inventories, as of August 4, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased by 675 tons, or 0.
52%, to 129575 tons; As of August 4, the warehouse receipts of copper futures traded in the previous period were 4,853 tons, a decrease of 298 tons from the previous day; As of July 30, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was about 164,000 tons, a net decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week, and the sixth consecutive week of storage
.

Overall, the recent import of copper into the domestic market, the quotation of premium water has fallen sharply, although the macro bearish factors have been digested before, but the recent hawkish speech of Fed officials is also more intensive, so in the short term it is still dominated by a wait-and-see attitude
.