Market spreads can be as high as twice as high as the ledger survey behind U.S. beef exports to China in July.

Original title: Market spreads of up to twice the U.S. beef exports to China in July behind the ledger survey
In the middle of this month, the "China-U.S. Economic Cooperation 100-Day Plan Early Harvest" list was officially released, detailing the 10 consensus reached between China and the U.S., mainly related to china-U.S. mutual opening of agricultural products, financial services markets and Sino-U.S. natural gas trade. Among them, after 14 years, U.S. beef is expected to return to the Chinese table, causing widespread concern among consumers.
China aims to export U.S. beef to China by July 16 this year, 100 days into the 100-day program, according to Zhu Guangyao, vice finance minister.
U.S. beef entering the Chinese market is a few happy and sad. U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross and White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer both briefed and welcomed the news at the news conference. At the same time, Australia, China's main source of beef imports, is generally nervous. A number of Australian media have even called out for their own beef export-related industries to advise.
statistics show that in 2016, domestic demand for beef was 830,000 tonnes different from actual supply. And once U.S. beef enters the Chinese market, it will help fill this huge demand gap.
U.S. beef competitive? According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in 2017, the U.S. high-quality beef cattle per British load (about 45.4 kg) is about 798 to 867 yuan, or 17.5 to 19 yuan per kilogram. In other words, the price of 1 kilo of American beef is more than 9 yuan. According to the food business network statistics, the current market in Beijing, the average price of beef per kilogram in 24 to 28 yuan. The difference between the two can be as high as about 2 times.
, deputy secretary-general of the China Meat Association, told the Daily Economic News that prices are one of the biggest competitivenesss of U.S. beef. Even with customs duties, value added tax, etc., the end price will not exceed the domestic beef price. "No matter how the beef market competes, consumers must be the biggest winners."
as one of the important achievements of the early harvest of the
100-day China-U.S. Economic Cooperation "100-Day Plan", China will allow the import of U.S. beef as soon as possible, no later than July 16 this year, in line with international food safety and animal health standards.
, it's not the first time American beef has entered Chinese the table. Back more than a decade ago, the United States was a major source of Chinese beef imports, accounting for two-thirds of all beef imports. But at the end of 2003, when U.S. beef and beef products were detected with bovine spongiogenic disease, commonly known as "mad cow disease," China imposed a ban on U.S. beef imports. Subsequently, Japan, South Korea and other countries have also called off imports of U.S. beef.
but it was in the 14 years since the U.S. beef was subjected to an import ban that China's beef consumption market exploded. As a result, the original U.S. beef market share is gradually filled by other countries, and form a more stable pattern.
According to the "2017-2022 China Beef Market Operations and Investment Strategy Research Report" released by the China Economic and Social Data Center, China's beef market began to show a blowout state after 2010, and in 2015, China's fresh beef consumption reached 411.88 billion yuan, more than double the 2010 level.
2016, China's beef consumption exceeded 8 million tons, with a market size of 360 billion yuan, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. In the same year, the country's beef production increased by 2.4% over the previous year, from 7 million tons to 7.17 million tons. Domestic demand for beef differs from actual supply by 830,000 tons.
results, the main way to fill the gap between supply and demand is to increase imports. In 2016, China's beef imports increased by 22.4% year-on-year, from 490,000 tons to 600,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons a year.
, Brazil is China's largest source of beef imports, accounting for about 29.5 per cent of total imports, followed by Uruguay and Australia, accounting for 26.8 per cent and 19.1 per cent of total imports, respectively, which together account for about 75.4 per cent of China's total beef imports.
domestic beef prices upside down phenomenon is serious
from the price and quality of comparison, domestic beef and imported beef in the end there is no gap? "Daily Economic News" reporter after an interview,
investigation
and the ratio found that the price factor has become one of the more popular reasons for imported beef.
since January 2009, china's domestic beef prices have increased from 33.57 yuan/kg to 63.49 yuan/kg in August 2015, nearly double the price in seven years, according to the "In-depth Study of the Beef and Cattle Industry" released by Shen Wanhongyuan. On the other hand, the landed price of imported beef is much lower than that of domestic beef, and the spread is still widening. In 2014, the average price of imported beef in China was RMB26.28/kg, well below the domestic beef bulk price of RMB45.67/kg during the same period.
Chengdu Import and Export Co. , Ltd. to the "Daily Economic News" reporter to provide imported beef quotation table shows that Uruguay in May this year to provide the price of hip meat is 35.8 yuan / kg;
company sales staff told reporters that the price provided in the quotation table is the import price of raw meat. "These raw meat parts are selected, so the price is slightly higher. If it's minced meat, the price will be lower. "
in terms of fees, the salespable said that domestic distributors would have to pay VAT and customs duties, and if they were tested, they would have to pay a sampling fee. There is also a customs clearance agent fee, each foreign trade company quotations are different, generally about 500 yuan / ton.
The Daily Economic News reporter then asked about tariffs in countries that allow beef imports, with Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina at 12 per cent, Australia at 8.4 per cent and New Zealand at zero, in addition to the 13 per cent fixed value-added tax. In other words, the tax-generated premium for imported beef ranges from 13% to 25%.
, for example, imported Australian beef, including customs duties, value-added tax, customs clearance agent fees, the price of 1 kg of imported beef is about 41 yuan.
statistics on food prices in 50 cities by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in early May this year, the price of beef (leg) meat in China was 66.96 yuan per kilogram.
the price of U.S. beef, which is about to return to the Chinese market? This is related to a range of factors, such as tariff setting, which is not yet clear. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture says talks between the U.S. and China to resume imports of U.S. beef are progressing quickly and final details are expected by early June, Reuters reported.
Gaoguan told reporters that in U.S. supermarkets, 2 dollars a pound of beef is very common, the rmb per kilogram is also more than 10 yuan. "This is mainly due to the low cost of beef cattle farming in the United States. Compared with Australia and New Zealand, the price of American beef is still competitive. The
of buying a cow is
2000
yuan
against the background of oversupply in China's domestic beef market, the market gap formed year by year can only be filled by imports. Gao said, because of the rising cost of domestic beef cattle breeding enterprises, beef revenue space is squeezed, the phenomenon of large internal and external price differences in the short term is difficult to change.
, including the United States, foreign beef prices are mainly competitive because of their lower feeding costs. According to a set of data provided by China Pacific Securities, in 2015 the purchase price of a 600 kg fattening cow in Australia was A$3.20/kg, or about RMB16/kg, plus transportation costs, and the price of a 600 kg fattening cow from Australia to a domestic slaughterhouse was RMB13,522. But the purchase price of domestic breeding, fattening and finally to the slaughterhouse is 15,558 yuan, which is more than 2000 yuan higher than the final price of Australian fattening cattle. Shen Wanhongyuan Research Report also shows that according to the average cattle about 2 years old out of the column estimates, the total cost of bulk cattle is about 17204 yuan / head.
xu Shangzhong, president of the cattle branch of the China Livestock Association, told the Daily Economic News that China's beef prices are higher than imported beef, mainly in the fattening cycle and breeding costs and foreign countries have formed a gap. "The scale of beef breeding in China is low, medical and health care and other aspects of the auxiliary conditions are not perfect, resulting in beef cattle breeding costs are much higher than abroad."
According to Tyson Foods, it takes about 16 months for American beef cattle to grow from newborn yaks to fattening cattle, while in China it takes 24 months to grow, a full eight months longer than in the United States. In terms of feed, a ton of feed corn in the United States is about 900 yuan, while the average price in northeast China in 2016 was 1600 to 1800 yuan per ton. Xu Shangzhong said that many domestic farmers in order to reduce costs, the use of straw, weeds as cattle feed. This seems to reduce costs, but leads to cattle nutrition can not keep up, not only long breeding cycle, but also low ketone weight. "It's half the difference between a cow and a beef that can sell for money."
700
billion potential market will change
according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture released global beef consumption data, in 2015Chinese the average beef consumption of 5.2 kg, compared with the global average of 8.6 kg, there is still a large gap. According to the current beef price estimates, when the world average is reached, China's beef consumption will exceed 11 million tons, consumption of about 700 billion yuan.
facing huge market demand in the future, Brazil, Australia and other big beef countries have stepped up their layout and fierce competition, and the return of U.S. beef in July is bound to make China's import beef market more variable.
beef imported through regular channels, The most familiar to Chinese consumers is Australian beef. But since 2016, South American beef, represented by Brazil and Uruguay, has won at price, grabbing market share from Australian cattle.
January 2016, Brazil became China's largest source of beef, with its share soaring to 33 per cent from 13 per cent in 2015, while Australia came in second, according to MIG Group. Australia's drought has led to a decline in beef supplies. Australia's beef exports to China plunged 40 per cent to A$670 million in 2016. It was with this opportunity that Brazil's share of beef exports to China rose to number one last year.
said there was still a lot of uncertainty about which country's beef would be most competitive in China in the future. Although Brazilian beef is cheap, but from the beef quality point of view of low grade, mainly used in beef ham processing, it is difficult to enter the high-end Western restaurant. "At the 'tip of the pyramid' are Dutch white beef, Japanese and cattle, but these are too expensive and have a narrow consumer base. Compared with grass-fed Australian cattle, American beef generally uses grain-fed fattening, the meat is tender and smooth, high in heat, more in line with Chineses taste. Grass-fed beef also has nutritional value, but tastes worse. Xu Shangzhong said.
reporter learned that south American beef export share is high, but earlier, the Brazilian police investigation found that a number of local enterprises in the sale of expired bad beef illegal. In March, the Ministry of Commerce said China had temporarily taken steps to suspend imports of Brazilian beef.
therefore, it is certainly not good news for US beef to enter China, whether it is Brazil, which is in crisis with beef quality, or Australia, where beef market share is declining.
for the domestic aquaculture industry, in the face of a shortage of beef situation, beef cattle breeding enterprises have also innovated breeding methods, reduce the cost of breeding, with a view to expanding market share.
Beijing Zhuo Yu Livestock Co. , Ltd. sales staff told the Daily Economic News reporter, in the domestic breeding costs are higher background, many cattle farming enterprises choose to breed and process separation. "For example, our company in the form of equity participation or holding in Australia, New Zealand and other countries to set up a professional breeding base. Foreign fertilizer farming, the domestic is mainly responsible for beef processing and sales. (Zhang Huaishui)