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Recently, Banna rubber tapping is normal, the supply of raw materials tends to be normal, and overseas alternative planting index rubber has entered customs one after another, and the tight supply situation has eased; The rainy weather in the Hainan production area is repeated, and the output of raw material glue is limited
.
In terms of inventory, as of September 18, the inventory of light-colored rubber increased by 1.
17% month-on-month, and the entry of alternative indicators gradually increased, coupled with the increase in Vietnamese rubber imports, and there is still an expectation of accumulation in the future market; Dark rubber inventories fell 0.
66% month-on-month, and as pre-holiday stocking basically ended, there may be expectations
of recovery.
On the supply side, in September, Thailand, the main producing country, is still in the rainy season, the progress of rubber tapping will be affected to a certain extent, while the national emergency caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic is extended to the end of September, which may face a shortage of glue workers, and the second phase of Thailand's rubber price guarantee plan is much less than the previous year, which will reduce the enthusiasm for
rubber tapping.
India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and other major producing countries are still severe in the epidemic, the release of natural rubber production is slow, and it is expected that the global natural rubber supply will continue to remain tight
.
Domestic Yunnan and Hainan are in the peak production period, and the supply of new rubber will continue to increase, but it still cannot change the overall tight supply
.
In terms of demand, the EU automobile sales market has gradually recovered recently, and the domestic tire export demand is good
.
With the introduction of relevant policies in various regions to accelerate the operation of China III and below emission standards, and the scrapping and renewal of medium- and heavy-duty diesel trucks, domestic downstream heavy-duty truck sales are expected to continue to maintain their growth momentum
.
The recent resurgence of the rubber market, whether it is Abe's departure, Suga's appointment, or the demonstrations in rubber-producing countries, have led to increased rubber price volatility
.
The fundamentals of the rubber market have improved well this year, and as the impact of the epidemic weakens, rubber terminal demand is expected to continue to improve, which also gives bulls the confidence to hold and rise for a long time
.
In the future, the sales of domestic automobiles, especially heavy trucks, should still have a good performance, and the fundamentals of China's natural rubber futures will maintain a pattern of double increase in supply and demand for the rest of the year
.
Thailand's rubber industry policy is a very wise move
to shift from issuing financial subsidies to stimulating demand expansion.
