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Outbreak of export shrimp
"Ecuador will dominate the global shrimp farming industry, something that Indian farming needs to be very careful about, as Ecuador's growth will leave no room for other countries," Robins McIntosh, vice-president of Thailand's CP Foods (CPF), told UC.
At present, the world's major shrimp import markets have a demand of about 85 million tons, and the United States and China are 1 million tons and 900,000 tons respectivel.
McIntosh expects India’s production to decline by around 100,000 tonnes in 2022 (from 9 million in 2021), with Ecuador continuing to grow at a high rat.
” Looking back at growth models since 2008, Ecuador has been on a very consistent acceleration curve, assuming that This situation, in 2027, will reach an incredible 5 million tons, which is very close to the total required for world import.
”
McIntosh expects India’s production to decline by around 100,000 tonnes in 2022 (from 9 million in 2021), with Ecuador continuing to grow at a high rat.
” Looking back at growth models since 2008, Ecuador has been on a very consistent acceleration curve, assuming that This situation, in 2027, will reach an incredible 5 million tons, which is very close to the total required for world import.
”
"In April of this year, I visited Ecuador and was deeply shocked by their farming industr.
They have started to implement intensive farming, and the production of 5 million tons is completely predictable and may even doubl.
Go back to four or five year.
Ecuador used to produce less than 4 tons per hectare, now they have 220,000 hectares of farm area, about 15-20% of the farms are in high density mode, and the annual production per hectare is 18-22 ton.
If 220,000 hectares are produced 20 tons, 4 million tons a yea.
”
They have started to implement intensive farming, and the production of 5 million tons is completely predictable and may even doubl.
Go back to four or five year.
Ecuador used to produce less than 4 tons per hectare, now they have 220,000 hectares of farm area, about 15-20% of the farms are in high density mode, and the annual production per hectare is 18-22 ton.
If 220,000 hectares are produced 20 tons, 4 million tons a yea.
”
"High-density farming in Ecuador is very interesting, those improved intensive ponds put 25-35 shrimp fry per square meter, and they are harvested in stages, so the average density per hectare does not exceed 4 tons, which is not so dense, and can be farmed every yea.
With three crops, the cumulative yield per hectare is 7-8 ton.
"
With three crops, the cumulative yield per hectare is 7-8 ton.
"
“In Ecuador, a batch of ponds are retrofitted every yea.
They don’t need to develop new ponds, but as the retrofit rate increases, their production increases every yea.
They just need to buy aerators, automatic feeders, and use high-quality fee.
, and now Ecuador has feed from Skretting, Cargill and Haida, which were not available in the pas.
”
They don’t need to develop new ponds, but as the retrofit rate increases, their production increases every yea.
They just need to buy aerators, automatic feeders, and use high-quality fee.
, and now Ecuador has feed from Skretting, Cargill and Haida, which were not available in the pas.
”
“Additionally, Ecuador is also working on a genetic program of its own to further improve the quality of shrim.
Three to four years ago, Ecuador had very few large shrimp over 24 grams, and now most ponds are over 30 grams and 40 There are also many harvests of gram and 50 gram.
"
Three to four years ago, Ecuador had very few large shrimp over 24 grams, and now most ponds are over 30 grams and 40 There are also many harvests of gram and 50 gram.
"
"After all these factors have been added up, the incidence of shrimp farming in Ecuador has decline.
Every time I went to Ecuador, I would encounter some vitiligo problems, but this time I didn't see a single vitiligo pon.
"
Every time I went to Ecuador, I would encounter some vitiligo problems, but this time I didn't see a single vitiligo pon.
"
As production increases, Ecuadorian exporters continue to invest in upgrading processing facilities to diversify away from their over-reliance on the Chinese marke.
"This time, I saw that the Ecuadorian factories are very modern, and you can imagine that they have invested a lot in developing the North American market for value-added product.
"
"This time, I saw that the Ecuadorian factories are very modern, and you can imagine that they have invested a lot in developing the North American market for value-added product.
"
"Compared to Ecuador, the shrimp farming industry in India and Southeast Asia appears to be a failure, and the low success rate of farming is an important reaso.
" McIntosh sai.
" McIntosh sai.
“When the costs are broken down, the cost of feed, seed and energy is roughly the same for the global shrimp industr.
But Asia has a high failure rate, about 20-30%, and that’s the biggest cos.
Look at Ecuado.
, I think there is no such thing as failur.
”
But Asia has a high failure rate, about 20-30%, and that’s the biggest cos.
Look at Ecuado.
, I think there is no such thing as failur.
”
“How do you define failure? Simply put, it means that the expected profit cannot be achieved after the breeding cycl.
Almost all Ecuadorian ponds have met their profit expectations, so there is no failure rate to speak of, but throughout Asia there is a large failure rat.
Failure often It's caused by disease, and that's the highest cos.
"
Almost all Ecuadorian ponds have met their profit expectations, so there is no failure rate to speak of, but throughout Asia there is a large failure rat.
Failure often It's caused by disease, and that's the highest cos.
"
In Ecuador, although many pathogens have also been found in shrimp ponds, they are not widesprea.
"I can find all the known pathogens in Ecuador, but they just don't have outbreak.
There is a difference between the presence of a pathogen and a disease outbreak, at low densities the water body is constantly undergoing photosynthesis, as opposed to a high density heterotrophic mode, which seems to cause a lot less stress on the shrimp, so the pathogen does not evolve into diseas.
"
"I can find all the known pathogens in Ecuador, but they just don't have outbreak.
There is a difference between the presence of a pathogen and a disease outbreak, at low densities the water body is constantly undergoing photosynthesis, as opposed to a high density heterotrophic mode, which seems to cause a lot less stress on the shrimp, so the pathogen does not evolve into diseas.
"
“Ecuador also has an advantage in transportation cost.
A container from India to the United States costs $20,000, and the cost of shipping from Ecuador is only $6,000, which is a $14,000 advantage in transportation alon.
Ecuadorian white shrimp can be shipped within a week It takes more than three weeks to get to the .
.
within 10 days, and more than three weeks from Indi.
Ecuador also has a gateway to the European market, which many Asian countries do not hav.
”
A container from India to the United States costs $20,000, and the cost of shipping from Ecuador is only $6,000, which is a $14,000 advantage in transportation alon.
Ecuadorian white shrimp can be shipped within a week It takes more than three weeks to get to the .
.
within 10 days, and more than three weeks from Indi.
Ecuador also has a gateway to the European market, which many Asian countries do not hav.
”
In the first half of the year, India's aquaculture seedlings were so strong that exporters' stocks were too hig.
"The cold storage is already full, and India also has problems meeting market cost.
If consumption is weak, it is believed that India's production will drop sharply in the second half of the yea.
"
"The cold storage is already full, and India also has problems meeting market cost.
If consumption is weak, it is believed that India's production will drop sharply in the second half of the yea.
"
McIntosh believes that there is a correlation between shrimp consumption and residents' disposable incom.
“How do you predict shrimp consumption in a country? I ran a regression analysis of shrimp consumption in the US, China, Japan, and Europe with growth in disposable income, showing a strong correlatio.
With the increase of disposable income, the consumption of shrimp has also increase.
The disposable income mainly purchases some non-essential food product.
China's shrimp consumption has grown the fastest, and its disposable income has the highest growth rate, followed by the United State.
In Europe, disposable income Income and shrimp consumption are flat, but declining in Japa.
In our time, disposable income is shrinking, which may be the reason for lower sales of non-essential foods, and shrimp products fall into this categor.
”
“How do you predict shrimp consumption in a country? I ran a regression analysis of shrimp consumption in the US, China, Japan, and Europe with growth in disposable income, showing a strong correlatio.
With the increase of disposable income, the consumption of shrimp has also increase.
The disposable income mainly purchases some non-essential food product.
China's shrimp consumption has grown the fastest, and its disposable income has the highest growth rate, followed by the United State.
In Europe, disposable income Income and shrimp consumption are flat, but declining in Japa.
In our time, disposable income is shrinking, which may be the reason for lower sales of non-essential foods, and shrimp products fall into this categor.
”
The .
.
is the world’s largest shrimp market, and many shrimp, crab and shellfish consumption has been boosted by a strong consumption boom in 2020 and 2021 due to government stimulu.
"Part of the government subsidy was used to buy seafood and non-essential foo.
At that time, people could not go out and could only buy seafood home, which pushed up the price of shrimp, crab and shellfis.
This year, the subsidy is no longer issued, and this disposable income has decrease.
What impact will it have on seafood consumption? We have seen a sharp drop in the prices of many seafood products, but compared with lobster and snow crab, the decline in vannamei shrimp is not so obvious, indicating that more demand has been generated, but now it has to pay for itsel.
"
.
is the world’s largest shrimp market, and many shrimp, crab and shellfish consumption has been boosted by a strong consumption boom in 2020 and 2021 due to government stimulu.
"Part of the government subsidy was used to buy seafood and non-essential foo.
At that time, people could not go out and could only buy seafood home, which pushed up the price of shrimp, crab and shellfis.
This year, the subsidy is no longer issued, and this disposable income has decrease.
What impact will it have on seafood consumption? We have seen a sharp drop in the prices of many seafood products, but compared with lobster and snow crab, the decline in vannamei shrimp is not so obvious, indicating that more demand has been generated, but now it has to pay for itsel.
"
“The .
.
shrimp market has become more normalized, shrimp products are not as high-end, so prices have not fallen as much as other shrimp, crab and shellfis.
But if you look back at 30 years of inflation and pricing, shrimp prices actually fel.
Ye.
Compared to the1970s and 1980s, shrimp prices are deflationary, thanks to advances in technolog.
Over time, the iteration of aquaculture technology has reduced costs, increased production, and lowered price.
”
.
shrimp market has become more normalized, shrimp products are not as high-end, so prices have not fallen as much as other shrimp, crab and shellfis.
But if you look back at 30 years of inflation and pricing, shrimp prices actually fel.
Ye.
Compared to the1970s and 1980s, shrimp prices are deflationary, thanks to advances in technolog.
Over time, the iteration of aquaculture technology has reduced costs, increased production, and lowered price.
”
