"Meat prices take off" into the "loss cycle" in seconds How to deal with pig breeding

 　　Feng Shui turns around
.
The pig breeding industry, which made a lot of money half a year ago, has now entered a "loss cycle"
.
On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released May national consumption data, showing that in May, the national CPI rose 1.
3% year-on-year and fell 0.
2% month-on-month
.
Food consumption drags the CPI to continue to decline, while the price of pork, which has received much attention, is still the consumer category with the largest decline
.
The data shows that among the food consumption of the month, the price of livestock meat dropped by 6.
0%, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.
23 percentage points
.
Among them, the price of pork fell by 11.
0%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.
20%
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The industry believes that the current pork price has not yet bottomed out
.
In order to prevent sharp fluctuations in prices, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Work Plan for the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices" and held a video conference, insisting on "raising" and "lowering" the prices of live pigs and pork Pay equal attention to ensuring stable prices with stable supply and promoting stable supply with stable prices
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pork prices drop for 19 weeksZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Although non-food consumer prices drove the month-on-year CPI growth rate back to the highest point of the year, food consumer prices were still steadily declining, driving consumer prices to continue to fall that month
.
According to statistics, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol dropped by 1.
0% month-on-month, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.
29 percentage points
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In food, the prices of aquatic products and eggs increased by 3.
0% and 2.
8%, respectively, due to reduced supply, increased demand, rising temperatures, and rising feed costs.
The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits fell 5.
6% and 2.
8% respectively from April.
2.
7%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.
11 and 0.
05 percentage points, respectively
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　For a long time, the price of pork, which has received much attention, is still the consumer category with the largest price drop in food
.
Data show that in the month of food consumption, the price of livestock and meat fell by 6.
0%, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.
23 percentage points
.
Among them, the price of pork fell by 11.
0%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.
20%
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Judging from the market data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pork market prices continued to decline day by day in May
.
As of 14:00 on May 31, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 25.
20 yuan/kg, which was about 16.
28% lower than the 30.
10 yuan/kg that was simultaneously monitored on May 6
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　As of June 7, the price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market has dropped to 24.
69 yuan/kg
.
So far, pork prices have dropped for 19 consecutive weeks
.
For the Beijing market, pork prices have fallen faster than the national average
.
According to the monitoring of the Information Center of the Municipal Agriculture Bureau, in May, the price of pork in the city's wholesale market was 23.
14 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 15.
1% month-on-month and 35.
4% year-on-year
.
"From the monitoring of the wholesale market, the relationship between supply and demand in the pork market continues to turn loose, the number of listings increases steadily, and the price continues to decline
.
" The relevant person in charge of the aforementioned department pointed out
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sozhu.
com, believes that as the weather turns hot, the pressure on the pens becomes more and more tense, and capital turnover has become a big problem.
The cattle and pigs that have been put in the pen have reached the point of time when they must be released.
The aforementioned factors This led to concentrated selling, which also led to a rapid decline in the price of live pigs
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Breeding pressure has increased sharplyZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Although the current pork price has been falling for several months in a row, in the industry's view, its price still has room to fall
.
The relevant person in charge of the Information Center of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Agriculture pointed out that from June 2019 so far, the context of this round of pork price changes has been basically clear, and the cyclical characteristics of pork price changes are also more obvious.
The current cycle has not yet completely ended
.
Pork prices will continue to decline in the later period and are expected to run at a low level for a long time
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Wang Jingwen, a senior macro analyst at the Macroeconomic Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, pointed out that in the past there was a three-year pig cycle in China.
However, with the increase in the concentration of pig breeding in recent years, the pig cycle has been lengthened.
It is expected that pork in the second half of the year Prices will continue to be under pressure
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The so-called pig cycle refers to the cyclical changes in pork prices that "high prices hurt the people and low prices hurt farmers"
.
A pig cycle generally involves a process of high meat prices, a large increase in sow inventory, an increase in the supply of pigs, a decline in meat prices, a large number of sows being eliminated, a reduction in the supply of pigs, and an increase in meat prices
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, the decline in pig prices is not a blessing for farmers
.
Feng Yonghui commented that the sharp drop in the price of live pigs is a very tangled matter for farmers
.
In the first quarter of this year, the pressure of the epidemic situation in North China was relatively high, and some farmers were optimistic about the market expectations in the later period, which led to the concentrated production of live pigs in the near future
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The price of pigs is falling every day.
When the price of a piglet drops to 300 yuan, no one wants it.
If you want to buy back, you don't dare to buy it
.
" A farmer said
.
In the previous period of price heyday, the piglet once touched the price range of 1800-2500 yuan
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, contrary to the trend of pig prices, the market price of feed is still strong, further aggravating the pressure on breeding
.
According to statistics, soybean meal prices continued to rise overall in May
.
According to statistics from the data research department of the feed industry information network Huitong, the average price of soybean meal in May reached 3,601 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan/ton from the previous month, or 4.
6%
.
At the same time, domestic soybean meal prices have risen simultaneously with the cost of imported soybeans
.
According to relevant statistics from the National Grain and Oil Information Center, in mid-to-late May, the soybean distribution price of major coastal ports in China was 4880-4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 620 yuan/ton
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Turn up" and "turn down" equallyZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Currently, the resumption and expansion of live pig production has a good momentum
.
As of the end of April this year, the stock of reproductive sows in the country has returned to 97.
6% of the normal year.
It is expected that the number of live pigs in the second half of this year is expected to return to the normal level
.
" The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Said that with the continuous recovery of production capacity, the prices of live pigs and pork are expected to continue to return to a reasonable level
.
At the same time, the scale, standardization and biosafety protection level of pig breeding have been significantly improved compared with the past
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　It is worth mentioning that, in order to prevent sharp fluctuations in prices, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism to Do a Good Job in the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices" (hereinafter referred to as the "Preplan") and held a video conference.
Reserve adjustments, formulate emergency plans, do a good job of people’s livelihood, strengthen market supervision, rationally guide expectations, and strive to improve the comprehensive adjustment capabilities of each link of production, supply, storage and sales, to ensure stable supply with stable prices, promote stable supply with stable prices, and prevent prices The big ups and downs affect the basic people's livelihood
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Compared with the “Regulation Plan for Mitigating the Periodic Fluctuation of Live Pig Market Price” released in 2015, this “plan” has increased the “change rate of the stock of reproductive sows” and the “average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities”.
Two early warning indicators; distinguish the two situations of excessive fall and excessive rise in the price of live pigs, and set up a three-level early warning interval; improve the working mechanism to effectively enhance the joint force of central and local linkages and regional linkages
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the same time, according to the different functional positioning of the government pork reserve, a regular reserve and a temporary reserve have been established
.
Among them, the conventional reserves at the national level are mainly used to meet the needs of market regulation and emergency release
.
Temporary reserves are proposed based on the practice of this round of regulation and actively borrowing from other relevant experience in the construction of important commodity reserves, mainly to purchase and store when the price of live pigs drops excessively and production capacity drops sharply, in order to stabilize production expectations and achieve effective "supporting the market" and stabilizing production capacity
.
At the same time, the size of the reserve has been greatly increased compared with the past, and the regulation and control capabilities have been significantly enhanced
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The aforementioned person in charge stated that the introduction of the "Preplan" will give full play to the important role of the government's pork reserve adjustment as a key starting point, and adhere to the "up" and "down" of the prices of live pigs and pork
.
When the price is too high, reserves will be put in to protect the consumption needs of residents, push the price to fall to a reasonable range, and avoid excessive expansion of live pig production; when the price is too low, it will start purchasing and storage to support the market and provide "reassurance" for farmers.
, To avoid excessive elimination of live pig production capacity
.
ZgA China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry