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Since the beginning of this year, the melamine market has fluctuated sharply
.
According to chemical online monitoring, the domestic price of melamine rose from 6,700 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to the current 9,050 yuan, an increase of 35%, and the amplitude during the period reached 134%
There are three main reasons for this situation
.
From a cost perspective , the main raw material of melamine is urea
.
At present, most of the domestic urea uses coal as the raw material, and the implementation of the carbon peak and carbon neutral strategic goals has caused the domestic urea cost to rise
From the cost side, from the cost side
From the supply side , the problem of overcapacity in the melamine industry is still serious.
Once the market improves, a new round of investment boom will accompany it
.
According to statistics from Chemical Online, about 270,000 tons of new production capacity was put into production last year, and the total production capacity of melamine increased by more than 12% month-on-month
From the supply side, from the supply side
From the perspective of export , after the Spring Festival this year, some foreign installations were unstable or shut down for maintenance, resulting in a shortage of international supply of goods and a surge in import demand from China
.
According to customs statistics, in April this year, China’s melamine exports reached 41,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 71%; from January to April, the total exports of melamine reached 144,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%
From the perspective of export, from the perspective of export
From the perspective of demand , the domestic downstream industries recovered rapidly after the Spring Festival, with more factory orders, as much as eighty to ninety percent of the equipment load, and large purchases of raw materials
.
After the "May 1st" holiday, the operating rate of domestic sheet metal companies declined, coupled with local environmental inspections, the operating rate of some areas was less than 50%
From the demand side, from the demand side
On the whole, the output of the newly commissioned equipment will gradually increase, and the market supply of melamine is not expected to decrease significantly.