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In the early stage, the market's expectations for the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut continued to strengthen, and the easing policy provided support for aluminum prices; However, the chairman of the Federal Reserve poured cold water on the expectation of a rate cut on Thursday, the metal market was frustrated and the upside was weak, and the price of Shanghai aluminum fell
.
Last week, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a trend of first rising and then falling; The average weekly settlement price of the 1907 contract of Shanghai Aluminum in the current month was 13880 yuan, down about 0.
01% from the settlement price last week; The weekly chart rose 0.
18%.
Last week, due to the G20 and OPEC meetings, the global economic development prospects are facing huge uncertainty, market risk aversion is heating up, and spot aluminum prices are under pressure and falling
.
Last week's spot aluminum price trend maintained a trend of first falling and then rising and then falling, the data showed that the weekly average quotation of Yangtze River spot AOO aluminum ingots was 13880 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan / ton per week, and the average price of spot aluminum per ton of Yangtze River in the previous week was 13894 yuan, down 14 yuan / ton, down 0.
1%
month-on-month.
In the external market, the geopolitical risks of the United States and Iran are fermented, the market risk aversion is heating up, and the price of London aluminum is under pressure and falling; The continuous decline in aluminum inventories provided some support for aluminum prices, and aluminum prices rose
with the trend.
Last week, the price trend of London aluminum maintained a trend
of first falling and then rising and then falling.
The market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.
In terms of aluminum inventory, the trend of London aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend last week, and the latest inventory volume was reported 996725 metric tons, reducing the inventory by a total of 26,725 metric tons, a decrease of about 2.
6%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 423068 tons, down 5,829 tons, or about 1.
4%,
from last week.
Macro information, in May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 565.
56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.
1%.
The US consumer confidence index fell to 121.
5 in June, lower than the previous forecast of 131.
1
.
Aluminum market dynamics:
1.
Turkey plans to mine bauxite in August ~ September this year, and provide Al2O3 55% min SiO2 3%~8% bauxite
.
Its annual production capacity of bauxite is 600,000 tons, and it plans to produce about
200,000 tons this year.
2.
Weiqiao's total production capacity of 543,000 tons will be dismantled from June to December 2019, and 542,000 tons will be put into operation
after dismantling is in place.
The outlook for the future market, the United States and Iran geopolitical risks fermented, the market risk aversion heated up, the global economic development prospects are facing huge uncertainty, aggravating the market risk aversion, spot aluminum price trend during the week is weak and volatile
.
The market macro environment is weak, the consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, multiple factors are suppressed, the upward trend of aluminum prices is blocked, and spot aluminum prices are expected to maintain weak operation
next week.
