With methanol international prices continue to rise, coupled with the domestic coal market since late November to start the rally, methanol spot prices continue to strengthen, is currently in the middle of the attack technical pressure level.
as the supply side continues to tighten and the demand side runs smoothly, we believe that in the context of low inventory, the price of methanol in the latest market is expected to go further up.
Cost support is becoming more obvious With the international crude oil prices upward, the overall enthusiasm of domestic energy varieties to do more is aroused again, methanol downstream polyolefin period spot prices continue to strengthen, coupled with domestic coal prices since late November has been in a rebound trend, domestic methanol price support is strong.
data show that the price of thermal coal strong up, Wenhua Zheng coal index since late November from 600 points to 741 points, up 24%, is currently maintained at a high level near 700 points, Bohai thermal coal spot index hit a new high this year, is now rising above 570 points.
imports, with the sharp recovery of international natural gas prices in the early period and the maintenance of methanol devices in the Middle East, cost-driven and supply-driven international methanol prices continue to rise, the import side of the domestic methanol market has a certain price effect.
data show that since the third quarter, the overall international methanol prices show a sustained upward trend, in November again accelerated upward, the current international major market methanol prices have reached a new high of nearly two years.
, FOB's U.S. Gulf median price rose the most strongly, rebounding 176 per cent from $143 a tonne in mid-June to $395 a tonne today, while CFR's china's main port mid-price rebound was weakest, but also rebounded from $152 a tonne in mid-June to $283 a tonne today, up 86 per cent. At the end of
, the overall supply tightened With the concentrated recovery of domestic maintenance devices in August, the overall construction of domestic methanol enterprises increased rapidly, the beginning of the third quarter at one point set a new high for the year, reaching 78%, but with the northwest and southwest plate gas head installation gradually discontinued since November, the overall start-up tends to fall back, currently down to nearly 75%.
As this year's gas head plant shutdown time compared to previous years, December will become the key month of gas head plant shutdown, the overall operating rate in the latter part of the year or continue to decline, domestic factory supply is tight, daily production is expected to drop from the previous 210,000 tons to 190,000 tons level.
Imports, methanol imports this year overall showed a tight trend, especially in August fell significantly, shrinking to less than 1 million tons, in September and October gradually recovered, again rebounded to more than 1.2 million tons, import data are expected to be in November and December or show regular weakness, the end of the year import supply tightening.
downstream demand has remained stable since the third quarter, with PP, PE as the representative of the domestic spot price of polyolefins continued to rebound, methanol downstream olefin factory profit improved significantly, in September, Shandong MTO statistics gross margin was once more than 2000 yuan / ton, and driven by high profits, late August to early November coal ole Hydrocarbon comprehensive operating rate basically maintained at more than 90%, although since late November, the sharp rise in domestic coal prices led to a sharp compression of the gross margin of coal olefins, Shandong MTO statistics gross margin fell to about 840 yuan / ton, but the comprehensive operating rate of coal olefins only slightly decreased, currently maintained at around 86%, the overall construction remains high.
Traditional downstream market, affected by the recent sharp rise in methanol prices, in addition to acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE and other downstream products overall gross margin level decline is more obvious, but still show a small or slight profit trend, most downstream products start to maintain normal levels, and acetic acid due to november prices rose sharply, Jiangsu Spot benchmark price from the beginning of November 2500 yuan / ton once rose to the recent 5500 yuan / ton near, is still maintained at 5000 yuan / ton near the high level of operation, gross margin remained at 2500 yuan / ton of the historical high level, prompting its operating rate to maintain around 90%.
port inventory pressure is small East and South China coastal port inventory since the end of July hit an annual high, the process of going to the warehouse lasted nearly five months, is now significantly reduced, at one point from 1.057 million tons to 773,000 tons.
, east China port inventories fell from 872,000 tonnes to 639,000 tonnes and South China's port depots fell from 242,000 tonnes to 111,000 tonnes.
, port inventories remain at a low level around 800,000 tons, although the overall destocking trend has slowed, but the end-of-year period is unlikely to be tired.
In short, under the background of strong international oil prices, domestic energy varieties once again ushered in a trial multi-phase, short-term methanol industry chain supply tightening and demand stability, domestic raw material costs and import source costs support is strong, the main downstream product demand is stable, the fundamentals will give methanol prices medium-term upward momentum.
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