Ministry of Agriculture: China's oil market monitoring information from January to February 2005

Introduction: according to the monitoring of the market early warning system of the Ministry of agriculture, it is estimated that this year's national oil planting area will slightly increase over the previous year, and the area of the main varieties of rapeseed, peanut and sesame will increase to varying degrees Meteorological conditions: at present, the temperature in most of the rape producing areas in summer is obviously rising, and the sunshine is sufficient, which is conducive to bolting, flowering and podding of rape, and the growth is generally good Affected by cold air in some areas, the temperature decreased, and rape was damaged by frost Import and export: in 2004, China imported 20.7 million tons of oil, down 1.3% year on year; exported 1.16 million tons of oil, down 6.1%; imported 6.76 million tons of edible vegetable oil, up 24.8% Among them, 20.23 million tons of imported soybeans decreased by 2.5%, 420000 tons of rapeseed increased by 1.5 times; 690000 tons of exported peanuts decreased by 9.5%; 2.52 million tons of imported soybean oil increased by 33.5%, 353000 tons of rapeseed oil increased by more than 1.3 times, and 3.85 million tons of palm oil increased by 16% In January 2005, 1.91 million tons of oil was imported, down 11.9% year on year; 490000 tons of edible vegetable oil was imported, down 13.3% Among them, 1.86 million tons of imported soybeans, down 6.2%, 49000 tons of rapeseed, down 68%; 87000 tons of peanut, up 41%; 260000 tons of palm oil, up 10.2%; 200000 tons of soybean oil, down 26.5%; 25000 tons of rapeseed oil, down 43% Judgment of domestic supply and demand: from the perspective of oil, in 2004 / 05, domestic oil production increased, import volume was appropriate, and oil supply in the whole year was relatively abundant From the perspective of edible oil, in 2004 / 05, the available resources of edible oil increased by 8.5% compared with the previous year, and the supply of main varieties of vegetable oil, soybean oil and palm oil increased by a certain margin; it is estimated that the total consumption of edible oil increased by about 9% compared with the previous year Due to the large amount of imports, the new supply of edible oil in this year is larger than the consumption, and there is a surplus of domestic supply Judgment of international supply and demand: according to the prediction of relevant parties, the global oil production in 2004 / 05 is 16.2% higher than that in the previous year, and the production of main varieties of soybean, rapeseed and cottonseed is on the increase trend; the global oil pressing volume and trade volume continue to increase, with the growth rate of about 6%; the ending inventory is about 50%, mainly due to the increase of soybean inventory, and the global oil supply is abundant In terms of edible oil, it is estimated that in 2004 / 05, the global vegetable oil output will increase by 4.2% compared with the previous year, consumption will increase by 4.2%, and ending inventory will increase by 2.6% This year, the global edible oil supply will be sufficient Domestic price trend: in February, the purchase price of rapeseed in some regions was about 2610 yuan per ton, about 14% lower than the same period last year Vegetable oil prices continued to rise slightly in January following the rebound at the end of last year In the first half of February, the overall trend was falling Influenced by the increase of oil and cooking oil prices in the international market, domestic vegetable oil prices rose slightly in the last ten days of February On February 23, the ex factory price of secondary vegetable oil in some regions was 5975 yuan per ton, down 1.8% month on month, down 18.1% year on year From January to February, the price of peanut increased slightly In February, the average price of second-class peanut kernel in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was 5350 yuan per ton, up 5.5% month on month, down 7.7% year on year Peanut oil prices rose in January, fell slightly in the first and middle of February, and rose in the last ten days On February 24, the average price of grade IV peanut oil in Shandong was 9280 yuan per ton, up 1.1% month on month, down 7.2% year on year Affected by weak domestic demand and lower external market, palm oil prices continued to decline in January following the downward trend since October last year, rebounding in late February On February 23, Tianjin Port was 4475 yuan per ton, up 7.4% month on month, down 28.1% year on year International price trend: in 2004 / 05, the supply of oil and edible oil in the international market was sufficient In January, the price of oil and edible oil in the international market fell, especially the soybean oil price Soybean prices in the international market rose sharply in late February, which led to a significant increase in other oil and edible oil prices, but still lower than the same period last year On February 24, CNF price of Canadian rapeseed (FOB + freight) was 284 US dollars per ton, unchanged on a month on month basis, down 23.2% year on year basis; CNF price of American soybean was 295 US dollars per ton, up 7.7% on a month on month basis, down 29.1% year on year basis; CNF price of South American soybean was 538 US dollars per ton, up 2.3% on a month on month basis, down 28.1% year on year basis; offshore price of Malaysia 24 degree palm oil was 385 US dollars per ton, up 4.6% on a month basis, down 30.6% year on year basis %