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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > Monoammonium negative factors dominate, there is still a possibility of downside in the later stage

    Monoammonium negative factors dominate, there is still a possibility of downside in the later stage

    • Last Update: 2022-07-06
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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      A few days have passed since India’s fourth tender.
    This tender did not soar as the price of urea in the previous tender.
    This time, the price of urea in various parts of the country has increased relatively slowly, and the price of urea has even declined in some areas.
    Now the compound fertilizer company in Linyi, Shandong The receiving price of urea is around 1680 yuan (ton price, the same below).
    How much has the price of some urea dropped in Shanxi, Sichuan and other places, so why is there such a "dilemma"?
    Mainly due to the existence of port restrictions, the obstruction of the flow of enterprise shipments, and the limited domestic industrial and agricultural demand at this stage, the price of urea is unlikely to have a real significant increase.
    However, once the port's handling capacity is improved in the near future, even if the domestic urea market demand is poor , But the domestic urea quotation is still more likely to increase.


      The situation of monoammonium is not so good.
    Recently, the quotations of monoammonium companies have temporarily stabilized after falling.
    The actual transaction prices are as follows: the actual acceptance of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is 1780-1840 yuan, and the actual 55% powdered ammonium in Southwestern China The price of outsourced plants ranges from 1650-1750 yuan, and the actual acceptance of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan is around 1780-1820 yuan.
    It is reported that the price of 55% powdered ammonium at Bayuquan Port in Liaoning is around 1950-1970 yuan.
    The industry believes that monoammonium is still likely to continue to decline, and the main reasons are probably divided into three aspects.


      First of all, the pressure on inventory in the later period may become more prominent.
    In the recent stage, the inventory pressure of monoammonium enterprises is not great.
    Many enterprises in various regions have no inventory and still have a certain amount of pending orders.
    However, it is worth noting that the price cuts of enterprises in Hubei and other places did not attract more orders.
    The order can only be maintained until mid-to-late September or the end of the month, and the compound fertilizer company near the 300,000 tons production capacity has only less than 10,000 tons of supplementary orders this time, and other orders are mostly small orders.
    When the overall operating rate of monoammonium is relatively stable, the pressure on monoammonium enterprises is gradually increasing.
    If the new demand cannot keep up, the stock of monoammonium will gradually build up in the later period, and the pressure will increase.


      Secondly, when it comes to supply, there must be a demand side.
    Not many new orders of monoammonium companies have a lack of demand on the demand side.
    The recent stage is the production and delivery stage of autumn fertilizer.
    The sales of compound fertilizer companies are not ideal, and their own inventory consumption is slow.
    In addition, there are still a certain amount of monoammonium inventory and the monoammonium waiting to be sent, making the company's storage capacity no longer large.
    There are not many purchasing plans.
    Moreover, compound fertilizer companies have insufficient confidence in monoammonium, and believe that the market outlook for monoammonium is worrying.


      Finally, the cost support of monoammonium raw materials is weak.
    One reason for the lack of confidence in the downstream of monoammonium is that the cost of monoammonium is relatively low and the profit is relatively high.
    They mostly think that monoammonium has the risk of continuing to decline.
    According to the rough calculation of China Fertilizer.
    com, 55% of the high-end complete cost of powdered monoammonium in Hubei Slightly higher at 1,600 yuan, it can be seen that the profit is relatively "rich".
    In recent years, the main concern of the industry is sulfur as a raw material for monoammonium.
    The price of sulfur has indeed rebounded recently, but not much.
    The price of port sulfur and Puguang sulfur has been hovering at 600-700 yuan each time with a change of 5-10 yuan.
    In time, then why is there no possibility of a surge in sulfur?
    The main reason is that the demand is not so strong and the Hong Kong stocks are too high.
    In recent months, the stocks of sulfur harbors have been maintained at around 3 million tons and there has been no significant decline.
    In the short term, it should be difficult for sulfur prices to rise sharply.


      To sum up, the negative factors of monoammonium dominate, and there is still the possibility of continuing to decline in the later period.



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