Monthly analysis of domestic grain and oil market in April 2001

Introduction: [monthly analysis of domestic grain and oil market in April 2001] According to the data provided by Zhonghua grain net (the former spot net of Zhengzhou grain wholesale market in China) (the following data are provided by Zhonghua grain net unless otherwise noted), in April 2001, the transaction prices of major grain and oil wholesale markets in China were lower than that of last month, and the prices of wheat, indica rice, corn, soybean, peanut kernel and soybean oil were lower, while the prices of Japonica rice, miscellaneous green beans, peanut oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil were lower Rise This month, the national wholesale price index of grain is 99, down 1 percentage point from last month; the national wholesale price index of edible oil is 63, down 1 percentage point from last month This month, grain and oil prices across the country generally fell The market situation of the main grain and oil varieties is as follows: the national average price of the third grade white wheat in this month is 1092 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from 1099 yuan / ton last month, and 2.24% from 1177 yuan / ton in the same period last year The average price of wheat in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market this month was 1148 yuan / ton, down 1.71% from 1168 yuan / ton in March At present, the wheat market analysis: 1 The wheat planting area has declined this year According to the survey of planting intention of the National Bureau of statistics, the wheat planting area decreased by 4.9% in 2001 China will carry out macro-control in a planned way and gradually reduce the wheat planting area in the short term In June, winter wheat will gradually enter the harvest period, which is the key period of wheat production According to the growth analysis from the main domestic wheat production areas, the per unit yield of wheat this year may be higher than that of last year, but considering the reduction of the total area, it is expected that this year's wheat output may be slightly lower than last year 2 Last year, China's wheat production was greatly reduced According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's total grain output in 2000 was 463 million tons, 9% lower than that in 1999; the summer grain output was 107.5 million tons, 9.3% lower than that in 1999 Compared with the annual consumption of 117 million tons in China, there is still a gap of about 15 million tons in wheat production last year, while the gap between supply and demand last year was only 3.28 million tons 3 According to the current national policy tendency of "protecting domestic agriculture and increasing farmers' income", it is expected that the price of grain protection will remain stable this year, and the policy factors will support the market price 4 The import of wheat decreased According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 20000 tons of wheat in March this year, and 90000 tons from January to March this year, a decrease of 68.0% over the same period last year 5 The international market price has a strong trend The U.S Department of agriculture's April supply and demand report predicted that global wheat consumption in 2000 / 01 was the second largest year in history, while global wheat production was expected to decline for the third consecutive year Global wheat production and trade estimates are basically the same as those reported in the monthly report, but global wheat stocks are expected to increase by 4.7 million tons to 113.6 million tons One of the most important factors is the foot-and-mouth disease in the European Union, which leads to the reduction of wheat consumption by slaughtering livestock Based on the above analysis, the wheat price will keep stable or drop slightly in the short term The national average price of second-class yellow corn this month is 1133 yuan / ton, down 1.99% from 1156 yuan / ton last month, and up 24.37% from 911 yuan / ton in the same period last year In April, the price of corn (third class yellow corn) in the wholesale market of Jilin grain center was 1058 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from 1065 yuan / ton in March The average price of second-class yellow corn in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market in April was 1128 yuan / ton, down 0.44 yuan / ton from 1133 in March At present, corn market analysis: 1 In 2000, China's corn production was greatly reduced, with a total output of 103 million tons Compared with the previous year, the reduction rate reached 19.5% According to the survey of planting intention of the National Bureau of statistics, the planting area of corn will be reduced by 0.9% in 2001 2 The export situation of corn has improved According to customs statistics, China exported 940000 tons of corn in March and 2.29 million tons from January to March, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year In March and may, the inventory of China's grain depots was basically completed Many grain depots with tight funds sold corn for cash The amount of corn on the market will be enlarged at the same time in various places, which will drive the price down 4 The feed consumption and industrial consumption level of corn in China will not increase significantly in the short term, and the stock of corn in China is still strong, which restricts the price rise of corn 5 International market According to the latest planting intention survey of the United States Department of agriculture, the corn planting area in the United States decreased by 2-4 million acres in 2001, 4% less than that in 2000 Due to the problem of genetically modified corn in the United States, the international corn export situation this year is favorable to China, and the price gap between China and the United States is gradually narrowing, gradually attracting buyers in Southeast Asia Based on the above analysis, China's corn market has remained basically stable in the short term and continued to improve in the long term The national average price of standard indica rice this month is 1497 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 1504 yuan / ton last month, up 1.63% from 1473 yuan / ton in the same period last year; the national average price of standard indica rice is 1890 yuan / ton, up 3.45% from 1827 yuan / ton last month, up 10.59% from 1709 yuan / ton in the same period last year The average price of an indica rice in the wholesale market of Hunan grain center this month is 1238 yuan / ton, It is 1.35 yuan / ton lower than 1255 yuan / ton last month; the average price of standard indica rice in Jiangxi grain wholesale market is 1430 yuan / ton, 1.24% lower than 1448 yuan / ton last month; the average price of standard Japonica Rice in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market in April is 1853 yuan / ton, 0.16 yuan / ton higher than 1850 yuan / ton in March; the average price of standard Japonica Rice in Central China Grain central wholesale market in April is 1811 yuan / ton 6.97% higher than 1693 yuan / ton in March At present, the rice market analysis: 1 There are new changes in the rice planting structure in China The number of rice planting with poor quality has declined significantly, while the planting area of high-quality rice with good quality and high efficiency continues to increase, which provides the possibility for the rice price to go higher 2 With the decline of production, the increase of export and the steady growth of consumption level, the inventory has declined significantly 3 The consumption of rice as rations is basically stable, and the demand elasticity is weak However, with the improvement of national macro-economy, the breeding industry will rise and feed consumption will continue to increase 4 Due to the increasing demand for high-quality rice from foreign countries and the commitment to increase the import quota after China's accession to the WTO, the import volume of high-quality rice this year will be larger than that of last year, which is expected to reach 250000 tons However, due to the poor quality and low processing level of rice in China, the export of rice is still in a bad situation 5 The international market is oversupplied with low prices According to relevant statistical data, the global rice output in 2000 / 2001 was 589.1 million tons, the consumption was 592.1 million tons, and the ending carry over inventory was 92.16 million tons Due to the successive harvest and long-term oversupply of rice in the international market, and the high level of rice inventory of more than 60 million tons for three consecutive years, the price lacks the power to rise, and has been hovering at a low level Since this year, Indonesia, Iran and other major rice importers have reduced their import quota and protected their rice production due to the increase of domestic rice stocks The export prices of rice from Thailand and Vietnam fell all the way to a new low in recent years The persistent oversupply of global rice has increased the decline of international prices Based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, the rice market will gradually become active and the price will rise steadily, but there will be no significant fluctuation in the short term The national average price of third-class soybean this month is 2160 yuan / ton, down 1.37% from 2190 yuan / ton last month, and 4.59% from 2264 yuan / ton in the same period last year This month, the average price of the third-class soybeans in Heilongjiang grain and oil trading wholesale market was 1887 yuan / ton, down 2.08% from 1927 yuan / ton last month; the average price of the third-class soybeans in Jilin grain center wholesale market was 1825 yuan / ton, down 3.23% from 1886 yuan / ton last month; the average price of the third-class soybeans in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was 2030 yuan / ton, down 0.98% from 2050 yuan / ton last month Current soybean market analysis: 1 According to the latest prediction of planting area and yield in 2001 released by the national grain and oil information center, the planting area of soybean in 2001 will reach 9.64 million hectares, an increase of 3.1% compared with 2000; at the same time of moderate growth of planting area, if there is no serious drought, it is predicted that the per unit yield will be higher than that of the previous year, the annual soybean yield will reach 17.37 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons, or 9% compared with 2000 According to the data of Heilongjiang Provincial Agricultural Committee, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang Province this year is 18.7% less than that of last year 2 The demand is increasing With people's attention to the nutritional value of soybeans, the demand is growing According to statistics, the annual consumption of soybeans in China keeps a growth rate of 10% 3 Soybean imports are increasing According to customs statistics, China imported 860000 tons of soybeans in March, 1.93 million tons from January to March, an increase of 95.6% over the same period last year; 20000 tons of soybeans were exported in March, and 60000 tons were exported from January to March, a decrease of 18.6% over the same period last year But in the near future, China US relations are the focus of domestic soybean market, which may affect the import and export of soybean and other agricultural products 4 International market In May, a large number of South American soybeans will be on the market According to the report of oil world in late April, the total output of soybeans in South America will reach 65.45 million tons this year, an increase of 11.4% over last year In addition, the U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that the planting area of soybeans in the United States will increase by 2.9% over the same period last year The output of the world's major soybean producing countries has set a new record on the basis of the highest level in history In the short term, it is difficult for soybean to get out of the trough by integrating various factors in the international and domestic markets With the transformation of supply and demand, it is possible to improve in the medium and long term Edible oil: the national average price of grade II peanut oil this month is 7393 yuan / ton, up 1.54% from 7281 yuan / ton last month, down 8.05% from 8040 yuan / ton last year; the national average price of grade II rapeseed oil is 4916 yuan / ton, up 1.42% from 4847 yuan / ton last month, down 21.36% from 6251 yuan / ton last year; the average price of grade II soybean oil this month is 4794 yuan / ton, up 487 yuan / ton last month 8 yuan / ton fell 1.72%, 24.21% lower than 6325 yuan / ton in the same period last year Analysis of current edible oil market: 1 According to statistics, China's rapeseed production in 2000 was 11 million tons, an increase of 13.4% compared with 9.7 million tons in 1999; soybean production in 2000 was estimated to be 15.4 million tons, an increase of 7.7% compared with 14.29 million tons in 1999; peanut production was 12 million tons, a higher level over the years; in addition, according to relevant data, China's rapeseed planting area in 2001 will further increase, and it is estimated to reach 8.22 million hectares 2 In the first quarter of this year, the import of edible oil continued to decrease According to the statistics of the customs, 350000 tons of edible oil were imported from January to March, 20.8% less than 440000 tons in the same period of last year 3 In the near future, the rotation of national oil storage is ongoing, and the market supply is sufficient 4 With the approaching of WTO, the import of edible oil in China will be further increased, and the domestic edible oil market will be greatly rushed out Based on the above analysis, it is difficult for edible oil to get out of the trough in the short term China feed industry information network vj7