Most commodity futures closed higher, driving rubber prices to rebound

At present, the main domestic production areas have entered a state
of suspension.
In Southeast Asia, there is a cooling weather forecast in Thailand, while thunderstorms occur in most areas of the southern production area, which hinders
the output of raw materials.

According to preliminary assessments, the floods will last until March 2021, which will have a major impact on rubber plantations in southern Thailand, and rubber tree yields will continue to decline
between December 2020 and March 2021.
In addition, four southern provinces of Thailand, including Narathiwat, Yala, Songkhla and Pattani, were hit by severe rubber tree litter due to rains and floods in January
.
It is reported that defoliation disease has caused a reduction of up to 60%
in rubber production in the province.
It is estimated that rubber farmers in southern Thailand will lose about 4.
075 billion baht in income and reduce rubber production by about 80,000 tons
.
If the problem of defoliation disease in southern Thailand becomes more serious in the later stage, it may hinder a new round of rubber tapping operations in the future, and rubber prices will be more strongly boosted
.

On the demand side, in January 2021, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell more than 180,000 models of various types, a significant increase of 54%
year-on-year.
The monthly figure of 180,000 vehicles is not an ordinary
meaning.
It means that 2021 has just started the year by breaking the all-time record for January sales in the heavy-duty truck market, setting a new high in January sales, about 63,000 units more than the previous record in January 2020 (116,600 units
).
At the same time, it also means that the heavy-duty truck market has set a new record for the tenth consecutive month, from April last year to January this year, the sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market has refreshed the monthly sales record, setting a new high
in monthly sales.

At present, the expectation of domestic monetary policy turning after the holiday has shown signs of rising, and potential risks exist, which deserve investors' attention
.
As far as the fundamentals of Shanghai rubber are concerned, the supply side of the rubber market is expected to reduce production, and downstream demand continues to be optimistic, it is expected that the phenomenon of macro and fundamental game will also appear in the later stage, domestic Shanghai rubber futures are expected to remain in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton oscillation finishing, standard rubber 2103 contract maintained in the range of 10500-11000 yuan / ton oscillation finishing
.