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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Multiple bearish suppression Shanghai rubber showed a volatile trend

    Multiple bearish suppression Shanghai rubber showed a volatile trend

    • Last Update: 2022-12-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures 1609 opened at 12700 yuan / ton, closing at 12665 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton, or 0.
    48%, from yesterday's settlement price of 12605 yuan / ton, with 568464 lots and 209868 positions

    Shanghai rubber

    Spot market: Today's Shanghai rubber futures contract for month, after the opening of the volatile trend, the final main contract rose 60 points
    Spot market prices continued to consolidate in a narrow range, and tobacco tablet prices continued to rise
    It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will still fluctuate sideways, and the range will narrow.

    At present, the mainstream reference quotation in the market: the reference quotation of state-owned full latex in East China Yunnan is 10650-10750 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L was reported at 10900-11000 yuan / ton, and Tai San tobacco film was reported at 12650 yuan / ton

    At the end of June, Thailand's Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperation proposed a plan to clear the reserve rubber, which plans to submit another proposal in the near future to study lifting the ban on the sale of stock film to no less than 60 baht per kilogram
    The reason for the above proposal is that due to poor storage, the quality of the stock of tobacco flake gum that the Thai government is about to clean up has deteriorated, and it is difficult to be accepted
    by the market if it is sold at the above price.
    From this point of view, Thailand has introduced two price measures on rubber since last year - storage and price limit or withdrawal one after another, and the risk of falling prices in production areas is increasing
    As of August 2, the price of tobacco flake gum in Thailand was around 60 baht/kg, which is not a small downside from the low of 34.
    12 baht/kg in the first half of the year

    According to the regulations of the exchange, the full latex produced in 2015 must be registered as a warehouse receipt before June this year, and tracking the change of rubber warehouse receipts from June 1 to August 2, the outflow of old warehouse receipts is very small, about 12,000 tons, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the total amount of warehouse receipts of 300,000 tons; new warehouse receipts are accelerating into storage, reaching 22,000 tons, indicating that the volume of warehouse receipts available for 1701 delivery in far months is growing rapidly
    At present, the weather conditions in Hainan and Yunnan are more suitable for rubber tapping, and the full latex supply that can be used for delivery in 2017 has been listed one after another, or indicates that the warehouse receipt pressure brought by industrial shorts has shifted to the far month 1701 contract

    It can be seen from the change in positions that although the main contract of Shanghai rubber was only completed on Tuesday, the bears have been laid out
    in the far month contract in advance.
    In early July, the net short position of the top 20 seats in the 1701 contract was 5916 lots, which rose to 15,000 lots in early August, and the ratio of long and short positions dropped from 0.
    85 to 0.
    76, highlighting the advantage of short positions
    In contrast, in the 1609 contract, the ratio of long and short positions increased from 0.
    8 to 0.
    86 during the same period, indicating that in the process of moving positions of the main contract for a month, the short position reduction was more active

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