Narrow fluctuations in the period of aluminum short-term decline may be limited

In terms of spot, Shanghai aluminum trading concentration is 14590-14600 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Wuxi transaction concentration is 14590-14600 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 14600-14620 yuan / ton
.
Holders are actively shipping, middlemen have no room for operation, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, Jiangyin enterprises are still in rectification, consumption has been suppressed to a certain extent, no obvious signs of recovery of downstream consumption have been seen, and the overall transaction has maintained stability
.

On the news front, the Asian dollar index fell under pressure and is now trading around 94.
9, with the market expecting a trade deal
between the United States and Canada.
In addition, the market focused on the US non-farm payrolls data for August, which was expected to be stronger, which was conducive to the rebound
of the US dollar index.

In the aluminum market, SMM China's alumina production in August 2018 was 5.
918 million tons, down 0.
1% year-on-year, and the average daily output was 191,000 tons, up 0.
1%
month-on-month.
The total output of alumina from January to August was 46.
183 million tons, up 1.
8%
year-on-year.
In September (30 days), the national alumina production is expected to be 5.
806 million tons, with an average daily output of 194,000 tons, up 1.
4% from the previous month, mainly because the output of enterprises that reduced production due to unexpected factors in August was restored, and with the import of bauxite put into production, it began to alleviate the problem
of tight supply of some domestic bauxite.

Overall, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate at a low level, but domestic alumina prices remained firm
.
And domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, and the decline in aluminum prices may be limited
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1811 contract can be backed above 14550 yuan to bargain long, the entry reference is around 14650 yuan, and the target is 14800 yuan / ton
.