Nat Commun: The team at Central South University released early predictions of disease progress in patients with the new crown.

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly around the world.
Most patients with COVID-19 have a lighter clinical course of disease, while some patients show rapid deterioration after the onset of symptoms (especially within 7-14 days) and become severe diseases associated with or not accompanied by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
there is currently no specific anti-coronavirus treatment for severely ill patients, whether Remidisivir has significant clinical efficacy for severe COVID-19 still needs to be further confirmed.
data available in the United States show that patients with severe COVID-19 are less likely to survive and often require intensive use of medical resources, with a case mortality rate of about 20 times that of non-severe patients.
, early identification of patients at risk of serious complications of COVID-19 is of great clinical significance.
studies have reported that the incidence of severe COVID-19 among admitted patients is between 15.7 and 26.1%, and these cases are often associated with abnormal chest computer-scanning (CT) results and clinical laboratory data.
previous studies have suggested that severe COVID-19 patients are more likely to have glazed (GGO), local or bi-sided patchy shadows and interstational abnormalities on CT.
this is likely to reflect the clinical progress of the disease and provide an opportunity to study chest CT as a predictive tool for the clinical effectiveness of risk strating in patients.
addition, the predicted value of chest CT for the prognostication of COVID-19 patients is also worthy of recognition, helping to effectively treat and control the spread of the disease.
previous studies have shown that higher lung CT scores are associated with poor prognostics in patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
chest CT has been proposed as an auxiliary method for screening individuals suspected of COVID-19 pneumonia during an epidemic and monitoring treatment responses based on dynamic radiological changes.
recently, researchers from Central South University, writing in the journal Nature Communicarions, reviewed patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia treated in multiple hospitals and observed them for at least 14 days to explore early CT and clinical risk factors for severe COVID-19 pneumonia, and charted them based on independent factors.
, the researchers also compared the clinical and CT characteristics of patients with different exposure histories or from the on-the-occurrence of symptoms to hospitalization to gain insight into the relationship between CT results, epidemiological characteristics, and inflammation.
the results showed that CT severity scores were associated with inflammation levels, and that older, higher neutral granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and CT severity scores at hospital were independent risk factors for short-term progress.
, which is based on these risk factors, shows good calibration and discernment in the inference and validation queue.
findings have implications for predicting the risk of progression in hospitalization in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
CT examination may help to stratage risk and guide the timing of hospitalization.
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