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COVID-19 has become a direct cause of death for hundreds of thousands of people 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2).
the indirect effects and responses of the pandemic, through social, economic, environmental and health care, can be enormous.
Indirect effects include: denial or delay of medical procedures for disease prevention and acute and chronic diseases, loss of work and income, disruption of social networks, increased self-harm and crime, particularly domestic abuse, changes in the quantity and quality of food and changes in the use of tobacco, alcohol and other drugs, and other infectious diseases, road traffic accidents, other injuries and changes in air pollution due to changes in social contact, mobility and traffic.
The impact of these developments on mortality varies from country to country and reflects the socio-demographic characteristics of the population, the extent and time of the epidemic, response measures, the overall health status of the population, the resilience and flexibility of health and social health systems, and the effectiveness of social and economic safety nets to support those in need.
, researchers recently published a paper in Nature Medicine, which applied a collection of 16 Bayesus models to life statistics to estimate the total cause of death in 21 industrialized countries.
from mid-February to May 2020, there were 206,000 more deaths in these countries than in the absence of a pandemic (95 per cent confidence interval, 178,100-231,000).
the excess deaths of men and women in most countries, the excess deaths per 100,000 people and the relative increase in deaths.
England and Wales and Spain were the most affected: about 100 deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a relative increase of 37 per cent (30-44 per cent) in England and Wales and 38 per cent (31-45 per cent) in Spain.
changes in mortality rates in Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland have declined slightly from a possible small increase of 5 per cent or less for both men and women.
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality varies, reflecting differences in the management of the epidemic and in the resilience and preparedness of health and social health systems in countries.
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