National Cereals and Oils Information Center: Soybean production areas have very little rainfall and lack of upward momentum. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term

National Grain and Oil Information Center Aug.
2 news: August is the US soybean yields to form the critical period of this year, US soybean since planting, continuing dry weather soybean growth, especially in the northwest of North and South Dakota and Minnesota and other states drought is more serious
.
Meteorological models show that there was very little rainfall in soybean-producing areas in the United States this week, and the main producing areas were dominated by sunny weather, which was not conducive to soybean growth
.

 

　　As the US old crop year is coming to an end, according to the current soybean export shipment and domestic crushing progress data, the August USDA monthly supply and demand report may lower export and crushing data, and ending inventory will rise
.
Since the planting of the new season US soybeans, the drought problem has continued.
The current good rate of soybeans in the US is obviously lower than that in normal years.
Soybeans have entered a critical growth period.
The weather in the next more than one month will directly determine the yield of soybeans.
The weather forecast shows that in early August The drought problem in the soybean-producing areas in the US may be aggravated
.
Although the drought continues to affect the growth of U.
S.
soybeans, the market expects that the growth of global soybean demand will slow down, the willingness of funds to grow more U.
S.
soybeans is not strong, and the price of U.
S.
soybeans also lacks upward momentum.
It is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term
.
Pay attention to USDA's upcoming August supply and demand report, and the US soybean data may be adjusted at that time
.

 

　　US soybean prices fluctuated and adjusted last week, soybean export premiums and discounts fluctuated slightly, and soybean import costs did not change much
.
Monitoring shows that the US Gulf Soybean's October shipment CNF price is US$615/ton, and the premium and discount price is 325 US cents/bushel for the November CBOT contract, and the combined duty-paid value of 4555 yuan/ton (3% import tariff, 9%) Value-added tax), a week-on-week increase of 25 yuan/ton; Brazil soybean August shipment CNF quoted 593 US dollars/ton, premium and discount offer to CBOT September contract premium of 260 US cents/bushel, combined duty-paid value of 4395 yuan/ton , The week-on-week was flat
.

 

　　At the same time, the domestic oil meal prices surged and fell last week, and the profit from the squeezing of imported soybeans fell slightly
.
Monitoring shows that the October shipping schedule of US Gulf soybeans will squeeze profits of -245 yuan/ton (3% import tariff, 200 yuan/ton for processing costs) against DCE’s January contract, a week-on-week decrease of 45 yuan/ton; Brazilian soybeans in August The shipping schedule squeezed a profit of RMB 10/ton from the September contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange, a decrease of RMB 5/ton on a week-on-week basis
.

 

　　Last week, some domestic oil plants were affected by the weather and the expansion of soybean meal, the operating rate fell, and the soybean crush decreased
.
Monitoring showed that the domestic soybean crush was 1.
72 million tons last week, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 340,000 tons from the 2.
06 million tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 20,000 tons from the average of 1.
74 million tons in the past three years
.
Soybeans have continued to arrive in Hong Kong recently and soybean inventories have risen.
Although soybean crush profits are low and soybean meal demand is weak, oil plants are willing to start operations.
It is expected that the crush will rise to about 1.
8 million tons this week
.

 

　　The weekly press report released by the US Department of Agriculture showed that in the past week, US soybean crush profits decreased by 1.
25% from a week ago, but increased by 64.
58% from the same period last year
.
For the week ending July 29, 2021, the US soybean crush profit was 2.
37 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.
4 US dollars per bushel a week ago and 1.
44 US dollars per bushel in the same period last year
.