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According to the forecast of last year's national talks (November 9-11, 2021), this year's national talks may start
next week.
01 Analysis of blockbuster innovative drugs in the first national talk
01 Analysis of blockbuster innovative drugs in the first national talkAmong the 343 drugs that passed the formal examination this year, including 183 new varieties of Western medicines and 15 proprietary Chinese medicines; There are 111 renewed varieties of Western medicine and 34 proprietary Chinese medicines in the catalog
.
Among them, more than 20 domestic blockbuster innovative drugs (including the introduction) participated in the national talks
for the first time.
Among them, Hengrui has 3 new drugs, BeiGene and Zai Lab each have 2
New drugs
.
for the first time.
Among them, Hengrui has 3 new drugs, BeiGene and Zai Lab each have 2 New drugs
.
▼List of domestic new drugs for the first national discussion (incomplete list)
▼List of domestic new drugs for the first national discussion (incomplete list)
Source: Medical Insurance Bureau, Zhongkang Industry Research Center
Among them, the most striking is whether JW Therapeutics' "anti-cancer miracle drug" - relmacel injection can enter medical insurance
.
If it can really enter, then the famous scene of this "soul negotiation" is none other than it
.
Because, at present, the public price of Tenoda (relmacel injection) is as high as 1.
29 million yuan / injection, far exceeding the invisible threshold
of 300,000 yuan / year of medical insurance.
29 million yuan / needle, far exceeding the current invisible threshold of 300,000 yuan / year of medical insurance
From the analysis of the content disclosed in JW Therapeutics' financial report, the opportunity for Tenoda (relmacel injection) to enter medical insurance this time may not be large
.
Because Pinoda issued a total of 77 prescriptions in the first half of 2022, the gross profit margin of its products was not easily increased to 35%, unless it can significantly reduce costs in the future, its product gross profit margin will not support the price reduction demand
of medical insurance.
In addition, it is worth paying attention to Zhifei Bio's recombinant Mycobacterium tuberculosis fusion protein (EC), which is the first diagnostic technology
for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in China.
If you can enter health insurance this time, it will greatly facilitate the screening
of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis.
According to WHO estimates, about 1/4 of the world's population is infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and there are about 350 million latently infected people in China, of which 5%-10% will develop active tuberculosis
in their lifetime.
In 2013, the latent infection rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in people aged 5 and above in China was 18.
1%.
20.
3% of people aged 15 and over
.
Pu Jiang, vice president of Chongqing Zhifei Biotechnology, said at the 2022 CIPEM conference that the next most important vaccine in China may be the tuberculosis vaccine, or it will generate a market size
of about 50 billion.
of about 50 billion.
According to him, there is a huge gap
between supply and demand for TB vaccines.
At present, many tuberculosis vaccines in the world have entered the clinical trial stage, and Zhifei Biotechnology completed the phase III clinical trial
of a new generation of tuberculosis vaccine in 2018.
of a new generation of tuberculosis vaccine in 2018.
02 Analysis of PD-(L)1 varieties
02 Analysis of PD-(L)1 varietiesIn this year's national talks, PD-(L)1 products are still the products
that are in the spotlight.
In addition to the PD-1 domestic four tigers that have already been approved for marketing, Akeso's cardunilimab, Henlius' serplulimab, and Corning Jerry/Sidi/Xiansheng's envolimab were shortlisted
for the first time.
In addition, BeiGene's tislelizumab, Hengrui Pharmaceutical's carrelizumab, Junshi Biologics' teripulimab, and Innovent Cindilimab are expected to negotiate new indications in this negotiation
.
▼Domestic PD-1/PD-L1, 2022 National Talk List (Incomplete List)
▼Domestic PD-1/PD-L1, 2022 National Talk List (Incomplete List) (Incomplete List)
Source: Medical Insurance Bureau, Zhongkang Industry Research Center
In fact, the main purpose of enterprises choosing PD-(L)1 products to enter medical insurance is to exchange price for volume and accelerate the commercialization process of innovative drugs, which is the biggest benefit
of entering medical insurance.
According to data from Zhongkang CHIS Kaiser System, taking BeiGene's tislelizumab (Bazean) as an example, after it officially entered medical insurance on March 1, 2021, its sales growth was very obvious, and the sales of national-grade drugs reached 767 million in 2021, with a growth rate of 1316.
6%.
In particular, on January 1, 2022, after the three new indications of Bazean were included in medical insurance, covering lung cancer and liver cancer patients, its growth momentum was further enhanced
.
▼ Sales scale of tislelizumab in national hospitals
▼ Sales scale of tislelizumab in national hospitals
Source: Zhongkang CHIS Kaiser system
03 Summary
03 SummaryIn the past, the national medical insurance catalogue was adjusted only once in 4 years and 8 years
.
Now the annual medical insurance negotiations have greatly accelerated the speed of
innovative drugs entering medical insurance.
This benefit is to accelerate the commercialization process of innovative drugs, whether it is the speed of hospital admission, or the growth of sales is visible to the naked eye
.
However, it cannot be ignored that the life cycle of many innovative drug sales has also been greatly compressed
.
In particular, the excessive concentration of R&D targets makes domestic innovative drugs not only need to significantly reduce prices in order to enter medical insurance, but also face fierce competition
from similar products.
For some products, even if you want to exchange price for quantity, it may be very difficult
.
Of course, iron still needs to be hardened by itself, and for a small number of exclusive large-variety innovative drugs, the pressure to reduce prices is relatively moderate, and it is possible to "ignore" medical insurance negotiations
.
